PY Numbers (again)

Originally posted by blaze720 It must be a boring afternoon...

Yeah well, someone slid into my parked van and trashed the rear a few days ago, and I don't reckon I could push the motorcycle up the icy hill encumbered with sailing gear, so going to the sailing club is impossible.

Here's a list of class average placings at the Bloody Mary over the last 8 years. Pick your handicap bandits...

Bloody Mary Average Placings

The fewer entries for each class over the years the less meaningful the average is of course.
Its interesting how very different the number of boats of each class that turn out to the BM (and other major handicap events) is to the relative popularity of the classes when calculated by Champs entries or claimed UK sales. There are links on the page to tables of BM popularity, Champs popularity and UK sales. The UK Sales table, it has to be said, is rather unreliable as much of the data supplied to the RCR is incomplete, inconsistent or just plain missing.

I've included Standard deviation figures on the page: this is an indicator of how varied results are... Most of them are, frankly, statistically fairly meaningless, but I must say that Laser and Laser Radial results suggest that statistically there is a question about their handicap under QM winter conditions. If I were the QM handicapper I would take a good luck at the quality of entry in those fleets... If they have National level sailors coming out and doing no better than that then maybe there is an argument for giving the Laser sailors an increased handicap on that water. I'd probably also have a bit of a think about the I14, National 12 and Firefly handicaps in the other direction. Its interesting actually, because my home club is near QM with similar water, and we have adjusted both Laser and N12 handicaps (we don't have I14s or Fireflies in significant numbers). Maybe Lasers like sea and waves better than N12s?

Edited by JimC

what i meant to say about the laser py was that it is ok as an averages boat, never really excelling in any conditions, which should mean that its results are ok over a long series but it will never do well at one off events.

Sorry above not very clear - I meant to say that at our club, the laser h'cap is bad against virtually every other well sailed class. But we understand that as a 'primary number', its somehow set in stone and indeed if we suggest it needs raising, then the rest of our returns are somehoow deemed untrustworthy!

My tuppenceworth is that the phant, as a fairly developed boat has an easy time of it, and if it was as far to the left of the line as even the laser or something like that then it'd be sailing off 1015 or 1020.
It'd be fair to say that, short of a Thames A Rater, there aren't any boats that overperform as well in the light as a phant, for a variety of reasons. The flipside of that coin is that even a really great phant sailor will get his (considerable) arse felt at a decent quality mixed fleet handicap race in breeze. I reckon if last BM was 20kts, even the bestr phantom would have done well to finish in the top 3rd, as all the fireballs and 420s romp into the distance.
Horses for courses. You pays your money, you takes your choice. Game of 2 halves. I could go on..
I reckon short of getting world class olympic guys in similar classes to sail them against the olympic class in question in a variety of conditions and rigorously comparing times around a course then this merrygoround will always go round. Only way of getting anything like rigor with such an inherently empirical system. Jim C's is absolutely right that it would be almost impossible to improve the PY system. Just keep on sending inn the returns and the PYs will find a level.
P.S.The laser is fairly harshly handicapped because almost every club has a few decent laser sailors, and probably has for 30 years, so tghe handicap data is very mature. It doesn't really excel in any weather on handicap because the rig is so crap in the light. 7 to 11 kts would be the least onerous conditions for a laser onn hcap.