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2010 Portsmouth Numbers - Now Out

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Medway Maniac View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Medway Maniac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 2010 Portsmouth Numbers - Now Out
    Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 10:24am

Originally posted by Graham T

Well thats what it says on the website - up to 1185. In
light winds I have always been well ahead on handcap
sailing off the old 1178. Mind you as the wind picks up a
bit I find results tend to slip off until its blowing dogs
off chains and I can get planing up-wind....

Edit - see what you mean about "are you sure" now...
misread first time round. Still I have always found my
Miracle to be a bit of a bandit and am surprised it has
moved this way at all.....

You wouldn't be so happy if you sailed on a tideway, when trying to beat uptide at 3knots you achieve 0.5kn over the ground, whereas the RS800 passing you is only doing 4kn but treble the speed over the ground! The downtide leg is over in a flash and doesn't help much... Our Miracles struggled on 1178 and will still strugle on 1185.

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Norbert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Norbert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 11:25am
Originally posted by alstorer

Merlin and Phantom are (along with other
relevant classes) clearly marked as development classes,
with the instruction to cluba to treat them with a bit of
care.


I'm pretty sure the Phantom is not a development class and
the MR hasn't had any development improvements for many
years. I stand to be corrected of course, but I sort of
get the impression that the noise created by the great
unwashed on this forum has contributed to both the Phantom
and MR being overly penalised.
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JimC View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 11:58am
Originally posted by Norbert

I stand to be corrected of course, but I sort of get the impression that the noise created by the great unwashed on this forum has contributed to both the Phantom and MR being overly penalised.


I think that the RYA guys are sensible enough to believe the stats rather than the noise. It might be the case that the noisier folk are more likely to use the new system than they were the old one though.

The Phantom doesn't appear to be marked as a development class, and rightly so. If it were you'd need to mark just about every other class as a development class - consider the difference between an original spec Laser with a wood tiller and a new one with flat carbon tiller and super expensive high purchase controls...

Edited by JimC
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Skiffybob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 12:26pm
Also, don't forget that it takes a few years for changes to wash through the system, so you're probably now seeing the effects of changes that took place 2 or 3 years ago.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote charlie1019 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 4:23pm
Originally posted by Norbert

Originally posted by Roger


....and just to save you all looking Phantom is
1035


Merlin 1006


 


 



Clearly there are some seriously good sailors in the MRs,
14s and Phantoms.

Is the point of this adjustment to punish the good
sailors?


The other way to look at it: are the phantom club sailor', that the PY is based on, really that bad that the resulting PY can make any Steady Eddie sailing one look like a sailing god!??   ;)
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Windy Miller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 10 at 9:06pm

Lies, damn lies, statistics and now PY numbers.

Who' d have thought it.

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Hector View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Hector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 10 at 2:45am

Seems to me that none of these changes can really be described as either harsh or generous. For instance the Phantom  / Merlin change means that in a 45min race (average at our club), they 'lose' 19 seconds. In an hour its still only 27seconds.

So no really big swing against most other boats.

Bas - you seem to be saying that based on returns, the Miracle PY should have gone even higher - is that so?

And if yes, can you say where else the PY committee chose to 'tweak' the statistical returns (up or down) and why?



Edited by Hector
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Bas Edmonds View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Bas Edmonds Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 10 at 8:38am

I indicated that the Miracle showed that its number "could" have gone higher. When faced with a large quantity of data, you can look at it all in a number of different ways and the PYAG sometimes have very simply decisions to take and at other times some more difficult decisions to take. Sometimes the data we get is also not of the highest quality and this also has to be taken into account.

With the returns within the Miracle S2C, of the ten returns received in 2009, 2 clubs showed a return 200 points higher at 1380 whilst the remaining 8 clubs showed an average of 1185. When looking over a three year weighted average, 1185 was also the most consistent number across the range.

At the end of the day, neither the RYA or the PYAG have the luxury of putting in a personal view on this. We, at the end of the day, have to stand up and justify to all of you why we have taken some of the decisions that we have done based on the data that we have. I did just this over the weekend at the Dinghy Show and in each case I hope I answered each of the comments put forward.

At the same time, I unfortunately do not have time to monitor this forum all the time so would ask that if anyone has any further questions on either individual boats or process, then please contact me directly at the RYA.

Cheers,

Bas



Edited by Bas Edmonds
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Simon Lovesey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 10 at 8:52am
 Great to see all this interest and healthy debate over PYs. As I think we all agree that PY is not perfect, but then what handicap scheme is, but at least with the Portsmouth Yardstick ALL of us can have some input through the submission of our own results via our clubs.

I have now been involved with PYs for the last couple of years, both with SailRacer and the online PY system and now sitting on the PY Group, it is great to see the RYA putting considerable effort into moving the scheme forward. For a long time the lack of returns data from the clubs has been strangling things, hence the minimal movements we have seen in recent years. Now with the growing amount of data coming via the website, we are starting to see some meaningful changes come through, although only scraping the surface.

But don't forget the RYA Numbers are merely guidelines and starting points, clubs should be looking to make their own adjustments around their own results. Hayling have been very active in this area, producing handicaps that reflect their own waters and members :

http://www.hisc.co.uk/handicapPY.pdf


PYS Online cmakes it easier for clubs to calculate their own numbers and now with the RYA collecting real results data,  wea re starting to see many exciting data analysis possibilities for the future, for example as we know the type of water each club sails on, we can output handicap variants for each type of water, for example from the web data we see a differential of 21 for 29er between open water and lakes

So in conclusion if we want the Pys to improve we all need to get involved, badger our clubs to submit more data and look at making their own local adjustments. We are working with the RYA to put together a web educational programme to help the clubs make the most of the scheme


www.sailracer.org
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Contender443 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Contender443 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Mar 10 at 1:03pm

At Lancing we tweak all handicaps for some of our races. The principle is that slower boats spend longer in adverse tide so get a correction factor based on some statistical analysis. Don't aske me exactly how it works but the slower the boat the more allowance they are given.

No allowance is made for boats that suit our water or not as the case may be.

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