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Clubs still allowing sailing

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Post Options Post Options   Quote KazRob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Clubs still allowing sailing
    Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:36pm
My understanding is similar, that the virus doesn't 'want' to kill us, as if it is too deadly it's genes stand a much lower chance of being transmitted from host to host. I think the theory is most of these things must eventually mutate into a more benign form which doesn't kill their hosts and can therefore continue its genetic path.
In an extreme case, a virus that was ingested by inhalation but that killed instantly would have almost zero chance to spread once the new host is dead, so it's genetic characteristics would die out quickly. Virus's that didn't affect the host in any way however would be transmitted freely as the host may never know. Of course a virus doesn't 'want' to do anything is any real sense, it's just the nature of genetic transmission that for any self replicating form to pass it's genes to the next generation, it must first survive long enough to do so.
Of course how many hosts die before those mutations evolve is another thing altogether.
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fab100 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote fab100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:29pm

I've decided what I need is one of those invisibility cloaking devices beloved of the movies. I know I can get to the pond and sail safely without rescue cover and social-distanced but like everyone else am being a good boy and staying at home, pour encourager les autres. 


But also like everyone else, not sailing is frustrating the hell out of me. James Bond, Harry Potter and the Avengers all have these invisibility gadgets; who do I wave my credit card at?


It also makes me wonder how the cycling MAMILS get away with it. We can't sail partly because of safety cover, which could be provided by 2 family members in a RIB. A cyclist's safety cover is an NHS ambulance and 2 paramedics. How does this compute?

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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:24pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:15pm
And here's that article about the virus just dying out naturally (Yes I subscribe to the telegraph, but I also read the Grauniad on occasion to get a balance)
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19. We cannot be sure how many have died of COVID-19 as has been said by many experts however distasteful it sounds the vast majority of COVID-19 mortalities are people who would have died in any case.

As for who's got it, had it or is carrying it? We will never know this for certain.


Edited by Paramedic - 27 Apr 20 at 2:11pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 2:06pm
Originally posted by Noah

How's the Swedish approach panning out? Not much in the media I've seen.




Here's CNBC's take on it, if you can accept they're not 'Fake News purveyors'






Edited by iGRF - 27 Apr 20 at 2:11pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Noah Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 1:53pm
How's the Swedish approach panning out? Not much in the media I've seen.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 1:10pm
Originally posted by NicolaJayne

Originally posted by Mozzy

I think the big worry was the virus overloading NHS and care services. That there would be a knock on impact for people with other health conditions getting access to medical help. And we would see many covid, and other health conditions die because of lack of access to health care.  

This, thankfully, to a large extent we have avoided. Looking at Italy and Spain it was clear that this could become a problem. 

But, my other half works in social care (occupational therapist) where all none critical services were cut to make staff available for secondment to covid wards and to stop spread in the community via staff. In the end, they've not really been needed. There's been plenty of extra capacity, mostly through premature discharge and cancelling of non-critical hospital visits. 

What's alarming in the excess deaths data is how many of the extra deaths aren't recorded as covid. Possibly under reporting of covid, but surely by April it was forefront of coroners minds? I wounder how many of these extra deaths are those who would normally be getting 'non-critical care' in the community, or having minor operations and where more serious ills are picked up and treated early. How many are people not going to hospitals with strokes and heart attacks. The 'excess deaths' number tells us how many are dying as a result of both the virus, and the measures to combat the virus. 

I also think about the many who have missed cancer screening and the ticking clock there. 

Then there are people who have had non-critical, but still life changing procedures cancelled.

And the longer restrictions go on, the more these 'non-critical' situation fester. 

So, I fully agree with the lock down. But the longer it goes on, the more important it becomes to open up the non-critical, especially as it becomes clear we're not seeing a disastrous overloading of the NHS, which of course was the aim of lockdown.  

We need to ask ourselves what measures we can take, what changes we can issue, for these non-critical, but still terribly important activities to take place. The lock-down has worked. We need to think about the collateral damage. 

Sailing is a microcosm of the above. Just like the the patients discharged early, with no community care, who don't just disappear, the sailors who aren't on the water don't just disappear. There are some great minds working on solutions to the main problem, with vaccine and testing. But for the rest we should be asking how we can limit the collateral in other aspects of life by altering our behaviours but still realising benefits.


speaking to my  contacts  ( and friends ) on the front lines the excess deaths  is in part people who fail to seek help when they should - so instead of seeking help of r that chest pain or the  really bad  gut ache  they don;t  and then a day or two wake up dead one morning  as they reinfarcted or their appendix burst  etc etc .... 
Yes, but not 8000 a week.  
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 12:30pm
Al Jazera, published figures for Italy about a month ago, they claimed that the mortality rate for first 3 weeks of March 2019, first 3 weeks of March 2020 were four times greater.

Edited by 423zero - 27 Apr 20 at 12:31pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 12:17pm
Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

Flu figures for who's had or got it are also wildly inaccurate over the years.

Even after the event the current government will bullsh*t about the figures. Excess winter deaths for 2017/18 were in the region of 50,000. The government wanted folk to believe this was because of ineffective flu vaccine. Health experts said it was because of cuts to the NHS reducing their ability to respond, austerity. The BMJ in this article are concerned with the "exaggerated" death figures being attributed to flu.

With the current issue it's in the governments interest to under exaggerate the numbers.

After the government have played politics with the issue we'll likely never know what the true facts and figures are.


https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6
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