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andymck View Drop Down
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Posts: 397 		Post Options Post Options   Quote andymck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Grafham Grand Prix
    Posted: 21 Dec 11 at 9:56pm
They are very skewed though, depended on who turned up from your class. Laser gets a good one, because no one from top ten ever turns up to sail one in a handicap event. Even worse if no one from your class attended. Then your club chooses to use these numbers for club racing as well. The boat that won most of the club racing has gone +10, not -10, as it was not their sort of course at the big event. Although I generally support these numbers for the winter series, it is fair to share round the chocolates, I am not sure they should be accepted for club racing without careful consideration.

Andy
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AlexM View Drop Down
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Posts: 857 		Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 11 at 10:18pm
From the data I did the F15 doesn't look bad (it had 19 counting results to the Blazes 10)
 
  PY Last year Ave GGP 2012 Variance from last year Ave
Flying Fifteen 1025 1026 1023 -3
 
For me I can see why they have done most of the h/caps and it does seem to tie up with last years results.  The only one I would be miffed about is the 29er
 
  PY Last year Ave GGP 2012 Variance from last year Ave
29er 924 924 893 -31
 
Alex
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Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 11 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by andymck

Laser gets a good one, because no one from top ten ever turns up to sail one in a handicap event.


I've written about it at length before, no point in repeating, but Laser results work out differently from any other class I've ever looked at. In my experience you can set a Laser handicap that seems fair for about the front 15% of the fleet, or you can set a handicap that's fair for the other 85%. You can't do both. So far its been beyond my limited number crunching ability to explain why.
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Posts: 3 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Andy dancing farmer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 11 at 10:36pm
I was at the Draycote Dash last year and the FF 15's only did the Sunday sailing as they were locals. The Blazes that turned up were mostly from the top quartile of the National fleet and the Blazes previously mentioned in the top 14 were from the top half dozen boats in the national fleet. How do you compare that. I enjoy racing because I aim to do my best and try and beat other sailors, if I just want to go for a sail with no chance of winning I will just go out for a blast!
I don't have a problem with sailing to a fair handicap but I want to see how it is worked out. We in the Blaze class are trying to get more of the fleet to travel to open events this does not help. I won't be in my Blaze now but will be being heavily penalised sailing with Mike, so we really do have something to prove. Bring it on.
After many months of just watching this forum this has finally got me to post.
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AlexM View Drop Down
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Posts: 857 		Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Dec 11 at 10:39pm
Good old crew skill +/- 50 pts from the PY at least :)
 
I did my clubs return and had a look at how my PY differed for my RS100 (PY 998)
Best result PY 910 worst PY 1168  only 258 pts LOL
Alex
 
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blaze720 View Drop Down
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Posts: 1635 		Post Options Post Options   Quote blaze720 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Dec 11 at 12:42am
'Andy'

I think we can expect the reasoned responce being in practice - DEAFENING SILENCE .... (so far)

Flexible PN's - YES well of course if/when justified

BUT you must use/have a consistent, explained  and 'open' and objective methodology.

We have done a lot to encourage more Blazes (in particular) to attend the winter handicaps in recent winters as it is good for the class and good for sailing in general.  How can we justify to the mid-fleet majority that it is good for them to attend if all they see is a nobbled handicap .... and one devoid of explanation ?   As you suggest we all just want enjoyable racing and can as easily get that without a load of travel hassle, cost and an early start. 

Effectively penalising the classes and CA's that have proactively supported these events/series in the past, when others have not, will not exactly help those same CA's to continue to do it in the future with the same enthusiasm...    Getting anyone out in the middle of winter to an event maybe 100 miles away is a challenge allready but adjusted PN's based on the performance of an elite in any class is not exactly going to help.  This is  especially true if adjustments are applied in an uneven way or inconsistent manner.  

Bring on 2012 and a return to regular single class racing again.

Mike L.
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Posts: 465 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Jon711 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Dec 11 at 12:50am
Originally posted by blaze720

Hi Alex ... Exactly the point !  And your analysis is useful.  Also have a look at the Flying 15 for example  - very similar sample size, variance from 'official' PN's roughly the same etc etc but ... you guessed it NO adjustment to applied handicap.  So the Blaze CA and some others could naturally wonder what really goes ....  Average last year was a modest 5 below the 'official handicap' but now nobbled 15 below even that figure.  What surely these numbers are not decided in the bar ?  On partly anecdotal evidence ? On insignificant sample sizes ? On a guess ?  So lets see the criteria / formula!!Without an objective method publically made available for scrutiny some might just think any  particular number is arbitary.  I'm sure it is not but if the method is not fully revealed it may well as be exactly that.   Furthermore IF 'championship level' sailors are assumed for all classes as is being implied how on earth can the Laser be adjusted to be advantaged so far ?   The Laser has got that slow in recent years or what ?  Surely not ....  Or is the event just not being supported by the best Laser helms ?  If it is the latter then  ......The impact of a particular sail cloth is likely to have virtually zero impact on performance overall when compared to these sort of significant administrative PN adjustments.  Got me thinking as well. Mike L.PS - I'm not picking on particular classes but examples do have to be drawn.   I think ALL entrants should know the critiria applied to their racing    ;-)



+1000

Well said Mike and more diplomatic than I could state... It's interesting how my response to the original post, has fired up such a thread... I'm nearly turning into GRF, except, I still have a Blaze, the second most persecuted dinghy on the Sailjuice circuit... Was thinking of buying a K1, but looks like, I may end up with a Laser (With a handicap like that would be a fool not to!!) I do not expect to win, but expect to receive, a result that reflects my ability, and on the Blaze handicap, I will be tail end Charlie...

Interesting that the RS300 appealed, and got their handicap changed, this may have set a precedent, does this mean that all classes can appeal? If so, there isn't long to sort it out, and on behalf of all Blaze sailors (Although, I have no class authority to request this - not on committee), let's re-evaluate the Blaze handicap for these events...

As GRF said the Blaze is very comparable in speed to the Phantom, so should be considered as such, NOT as faster....

Sorry, rant over...

Jon
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Ruscoe View Drop Down
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Posts: 1514 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Ruscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Dec 11 at 7:31am
Originally posted by Jon711

 
Interesting that the RS300 appealed, and got their handicap changed, this may have set a precedent, does this mean that all classes can appeal? If so, there isn't long to sort it out, and on behalf of all Blaze sailors (Although, I have no class authority to request this - not on committee), let's re-evaluate the Blaze handicap for these events...

As GRF said the Blaze is very comparable in speed to the Phantom, so should be considered as such, NOT as faster....

Sorry, rant over...

Jon

Jon couple of points, 
I think the RS300 just appealed which fleet they fell into, they appealed and got put back into the single handed fleet.  Which as a single hander i think everyone agrees on.  There was no change to the 300 handicap of 1000.  As for the Blaze being compared as similar speed as a Phantom, well looking at the GGP numbers you are in luck, as the Phantom is considered faster by 11 points!

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Dec 11 at 7:54am
I'm no statistician but I have done a lot of mathematical modelling validation in my time. It seems to me that the 4 digit PY scheme promises a level of accuracy(and precision) that it simply can't deliver. There simply isn't enough data to leave it all to a computer to calculate the PYs, so there has to be some level of subjective human input. This is what the official PY figures have lacked for too long and what, I believe, the GGP numbers include a dose of. However, with any human judgement comes the possibility of inconsistency, ignorance (as in lack of knowledge, not stupidity) and error, so it would be a good idea to publish the rationale behind the numbers, at least for the big movers. I personally can't see the point if 4 digit PYs. One point in 1000 is 0.1%, less than 4 seconds an hour or a change of average speed from 4knots to 4.004 knots. Good luck finding a speedo that will reliably tell you your speed that accurately! Consequently, I think that PYs should be rounded to the nearest 5 points, anything else is pseudo-science.

Edited by Peaky - 22 Dec 11 at 7:56am
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sargesail View Drop Down
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Posts: 1459 		Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Dec 11 at 8:19am
But Peaky that's exactly it.  The 4 digit Pseudo-science allows an adjustment of the PY as an RYA generated number or locally to reflect the fact that human judgement perceives that one class is faster than another rather than leaving them on the same number as they were on the old 3 digit system.  It panders to the human factor while appearing scientific.  Just like the whole PY system in a way!

And it was only the 300's class that was adjusted not the PY.
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