Clubs still allowing sailing

Some speculation about the possible cause of excess deaths seemingly is an attempt to avoid the real issue.   Covid-19 is obviously dangerous, kills widely and very very obviously is the key factor here.  There will be and is undercounting of Covid-19 related deaths just as conversally is a proportion of fatalities where it was just one of a number of factors involved.  However do not be persuaded that without a mostly effective shutdown in place now, and all its implications anything other a total disaster would have resulted - both in terms of deaths and an associated economic wipe-out.  Things are bad enough anyway and will be for some time whatever policies were applied or could be applied now.  We must therefore be very careful what we wish for in the next few weeks and months.  Continuing limitations are not likely to be popular, as if they would ever have been, but this is not a period where much 'choice' exists.  Choice is really a luxury of more normal times.  Open up the economy and social interaction too quickly and the result could kill off many tens of thousands more than is still going to happen anyway from here on in as well as snuff out any hoped for economic benefits or recovery to boot.   Pandemics of this type do not simply disappear on a political or economic timetable.  This period will of course end or become normalised as a much lower level of insidence than currently but expectations have to be realistic on an indivudual, national and world basis in the coming months. 

I'd like to be sailing as well, and expect some limited liberalisation of current restictions in due course that may allow at least some sailing access later this year but 'back to normal'  ? - no time soon.

Not really. 

Because the ONS record all this, so there is no need to assume. 

There were 18,516 deaths. This is 7,996 more deaths than the five-year average of 10,520. The number of death registrations involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased to 6,213. So there are at least 1,783 deaths above the 5 year average not linked to covid. 

Now not all, but an not insignificant amount of the 6,213 would have died of something else anyway that week. We know 91%  have underlying health conditions. We'll never know what would have killed them otherwise. But there are clues. Ischaemic heart disease was down on the 5 year average for deaths, as was chronic lower respiratory  disease. These were also two of the most linked underlying health conditions. Suggesting that instead of those conditions, Covid is killing them. 

This means, that extra deaths not linked to covid is probably also up to account for the people who would have died anyway, who instead died with covid.  But it would be hard to say exactly how many, as we don't know how many people dying of covid would have died that week of those other diseases anyway. 

If we get this thing under control, then you would expect to see a big dip in the death rate. The sooner the dip and the more sudden the dip is reflective that the people who died would have died within months under more normal circumstances. 

Now, I'm not sure what is causing the extra deaths. I mean, we can see what is the direct causes are, because they are recorded. However, what will be harder to determine is what caused those other causes of death to spike at the same time as covid (as we know those deaths were unrelated). My point earlier about community care and hospital wards cleared to make way for covid patients could be reasons. Maybe if you've only got a few months left anyway then facing it in isolation is enough to make you let go too?

What is fantastic news is that the NHS isn't being overwhelmed. The biggest challenges it faces are tests to get fit worker with the sniffles back in work and to get more PPE. 

The question now is, we cleared out the hospitals, cancelled none emergency care and told people to stay away to ensure we had capacity of the virus. This could be a cause for the extra deaths not related to covid. 

In the end, the debate will be whether more people died because they were deprived care or were too afraid to seeks care when there was in fact capacity than would have died if the NHS had been overwhelmed and those same people couldn't get care because the capacity wasn't there?

It's a tragic situation. 

You'd like to think we've come on a bit in 100 years, but I dont disagree that come this winter we will find ourselves subject to similar restrictions. If its the right thing to do, you wont find me complaining :)