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Is inflation impacting Nationals Attendance?
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fab100 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 10:30am
Originally posted by Mozzy

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Mozzy

I mean, if Olympic status really helps a class, then where are the big attendances for the 49er, Nacra and 470? 

money? You can buy an ILCA for £8k sail it for a year or 3 then sell it for half that. A Mackay 470 is around 3 times that to buy, it lasts a year at best, after which the hull’s a banana fit only for the bin, in racing terms at least. Stupid construction rules insisting on polyester only “to keep cost down”. At least a 505, for 470 money, uses decent materials and is thereby reasonably competitive for years not months. 

Cats may be even worse, with the lifecycle longevity of a flying ant, it seems to me. There’s always a fundamental revision or new, better cat class along in a minute. In a cat you pay no attention to a 5 degree shift. In an ILCA miss it and lose several places. 


Then you factor in the relative decline of double-handers. 

Be interesting though to see how the Finn does attracting new blood now its no longer olympic, but surely not as well as it used to. 

All in all, the ILCA seems to hit all the sweet spots and it can only be good news that Rastegar is out of the equation too.

Maybe cost. 

But, they're all two person boats so harsh to compare to a single hander. Plus you get a fair more boat for your buck, so I am not sure how much cost is a factor. Probably better comparing the cost of a merlin to a 470, a foiling phantom to the Nacra and an 800 to the 49er. 

49er, Nacra and even to an extent the 470 are limited on venues where you can sail which further hampers amateur involvement. So there may be an element of this which certainly doesn't affect the laser.

But mostly I think people don't sail these classes because there will be ~10 boats who sailing full time and life is structured around sailing. Plus they're pretty good anyways. And those same boats add little social value* as they have to act professional. Not a great way to build a domestic fleet. Yet, despite this, the laser seems to get good turnouts. But I would struggle to say they really benefit from being an Olympic class (in the full rig). 

*full time sailors outside their professional bot are a lot more fun. But they're also easier to beat and are essentially on holiday. 

All of the 95 ILCA4s at the Nats and most of the 6s are sailed by under 21s - those boats and the event expenses will have been paid for by the bank-of-mum-and-dad. ILCA is more competition, better racing and lots cheaper (notwithstanding lots of 'em will also have bought a rib to support little Johny/Jane). And it's what Sir Ben made his name in. What's not to like. Apart from the ruder if you are Jimbo TT.
Great book for Club Sailors here
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CT249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 10:33am
Yes, as far as the Laser's Olympic status goes, around here the 18-35 year olds vanished almost completely when it went Olympic, and that's easy to see by looking at old class records that showed the age of the sailors. 

A chap I sailed with a tiny bit got to be 3rd in the Open Worlds with a full-on amateur effort (ie a huge amount of sailing after work and then weeks of full-time sailing before major titles) and dropped out straight away when it went Olympic because he knew that he could either go full time or be swamped by the full timers. 

Meanwhile, down here the Finn fleets are bigger than they have been since the class was created, I think, as people move into them now that they no longer have to race full time sailors.

Down here we have plenty of great water for 49ers and Nacra 17s but I don't think there's ever been a consistent club fleet of 49ers in the entire continent, and there's certainly no fleet of N17s. 

It's a great point about the pros being different when they change outside their pro classes. Some of the classes I sail have been used by pros for a change of scene between Olympics, and they are certainly far more mortal (but still incredibly good) when they don't have the advantage of being in a class they sail 9-5.  It's really interesting to watch them tackle a new class or type of sailing. They still tend to be pretty fun in both situations apart from the fact that they are damn hard to keep up with downwind!

The Nacra is pretty bizarre. The class reports on the WS website show that only 16 were sold in 2020 and 12 were sold in 2021. In 2021 the nation with the biggest representation in the class had an incredibly low 7 boats. No wonder there were press reports that WS was considering dumping it.

Meanwhile the Flying Phantom doesn't seem to have updated its Facebook since March 2020 (much less any other news from The Future Of Sailing) and there seems to be nothing at all happening with them apart from second-hand boats being sold.

Strange indeed, when we have been told so often that foils are the future.
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CT249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 10:37am
One thing though, Fab, is that while it's been eons, I was told many years ago by a British 470 silver medallist that the 470's reputation for going soft was very much exaggerated, perhaps like the claims that Laser sails only last for one regatta.

The only time I did a 470 nationals was with a skipper who wasn't a bad sailor (2nd or 3rd in the Youth Worlds on 420s, I think) and we got whipped because the other guys were better at 470 sailing, not because our boat was soft. Smile


Edited by CT249 - 22 Jul 22 at 10:39am
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turnturtle View Drop Down
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Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 10:44am
Originally posted by CT249

Strange indeed, when we have been told so often that foils are the future.

I'm hoping foils are in my future one day, but for this summer I'll be sticking with a strap-on for my blow up toy.
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Mark Aged 42 View Drop Down
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Posts: 98 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Mark Aged 42 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 11:22am
Originally posted by john80

For sure the ILCA is getting pretty big numbers. However if it were not an Olympic class how many would be sailing it. 
The answer is the 99% of weekend warriors who race ILCA/Laser every weekend. Olympic sailing has so little impact on most sailors, its an irrelevance. Great if you are that good, and have the time/money/fitness/training to pursue that path, but I bet the 99% I mentioned just now cannot name one single Olympic GB sailor from the last games. But I also bet they can reel off the names of most of their club champs from the last decade. This is the way sailing is at the grass roots.
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Posts: 209 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 12:27pm
Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Mozzy

Originally posted by fab100

Originally posted by Mozzy

I mean, if Olympic status really helps a class, then where are the big attendances for the 49er, Nacra and 470? 

money? You can buy an ILCA for £8k sail it for a year or 3 then sell it for half that. A Mackay 470 is around 3 times that to buy, it lasts a year at best, after which the hull’s a banana fit only for the bin, in racing terms at least. Stupid construction rules insisting on polyester only “to keep cost down”. At least a 505, for 470 money, uses decent materials and is thereby reasonably competitive for years not months. 

Cats may be even worse, with the lifecycle longevity of a flying ant, it seems to me. There’s always a fundamental revision or new, better cat class along in a minute. In a cat you pay no attention to a 5 degree shift. In an ILCA miss it and lose several places. 


Then you factor in the relative decline of double-handers. 

Be interesting though to see how the Finn does attracting new blood now its no longer olympic, but surely not as well as it used to. 

All in all, the ILCA seems to hit all the sweet spots and it can only be good news that Rastegar is out of the equation too.

Maybe cost. 

But, they're all two person boats so harsh to compare to a single hander. Plus you get a fair more boat for your buck, so I am not sure how much cost is a factor. Probably better comparing the cost of a merlin to a 470, a foiling phantom to the Nacra and an 800 to the 49er. 

49er, Nacra and even to an extent the 470 are limited on venues where you can sail which further hampers amateur involvement. So there may be an element of this which certainly doesn't affect the laser.

But mostly I think people don't sail these classes because there will be ~10 boats who sailing full time and life is structured around sailing. Plus they're pretty good anyways. And those same boats add little social value* as they have to act professional. Not a great way to build a domestic fleet. Yet, despite this, the laser seems to get good turnouts. But I would struggle to say they really benefit from being an Olympic class (in the full rig). 

*full time sailors outside their professional bot are a lot more fun. But they're also easier to beat and are essentially on holiday. 

All of the 95 ILCA4s at the Nats and most of the 6s are sailed by under 21s - those boats and the event expenses will have been paid for by the bank-of-mum-and-dad. ILCA is more competition, better racing and lots cheaper (notwithstanding lots of 'em will also have bought a rib to support little Johny/Jane). And it's what Sir Ben made his name in. What's not to like. Apart from the ruder if you are Jimbo TT.
There isn't anything not to like.  

My post you picked up was a direct response to John80 who was saying the numbers were only good because it was a pathway boat and he thought the numbers for the 7 were worryingly low and wondered where they would be if it wasn't an Olympic boat.
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CT249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 12:30pm
Originally posted by turnturtle

Originally posted by CT249

Strange indeed, when we have been told so often that foils are the future.

I'm hoping foils are in my future one day, but for this summer I'll be sticking with a strap-on for my blow up toy.



I do so hope that "blow up toy" is an inflatable windsup. This is, after all, a family forum.

And if that's not a windsup, you need to see a doctor, quickly. Tongue
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CT249 View Drop Down
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 12:33pm
Originally posted by Mark Aged 42

Originally posted by john80

For sure the ILCA is getting pretty big numbers. However if it were not an Olympic class how many would be sailing it. 
The answer is the 99% of weekend warriors who race ILCA/Laser every weekend. Olympic sailing has so little impact on most sailors, its an irrelevance. Great if you are that good, and have the time/money/fitness/training to pursue that path, but I bet the 99% I mentioned just now cannot name one single Olympic GB sailor from the last games. But I also bet they can reel off the names of most of their club champs from the last decade. This is the way sailing is at the grass roots.

Well said. The Laser was enormous before it was chosen for the Games so why would people think its mass appeal these days was related to it being in the Games? 
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Posts: 399 		Post Options Post Options   Quote CT249 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 12:42pm
Originally posted by john80

For sure the ILCA is getting pretty big numbers. However if it were not an Olympic class how many would be sailing it. You are talking just under a hundred ILCA4 which are mainly kids sailing. In the ILCA 5 there is a lot of females and 16-18 year olds as you would maybe expect. In the ILCA7 there is only 56 boats and from a quick glance around half seem at the young end of the spectrum. 

So my question is that whilst the Laser seems like a good nationals attendance how would it fair if it was not an Olympic pathway boat? It seems to me like the numbers above would catastrophically drop to the point where they would be well below that of a Solo or even things like D Zeros and Aeros. The ILCA 7 numbers would worry me at current rates.  


One point is that the Laser nationals are so big that they have a separate Masters nationals. That explains the reason the 7 sailors are "at the young end" and if you want to make a true count of Nationals attendance you have to add about 40 extra Masters sailors to the 7 fleet and 30 or so to the 5s.

The PY reports show that at club level where mixed fleet racing is the norm, the Laser is by far the most popular boat. Very few people racing a Laser in PY racing would be doing it because the Laser is an Olympic class.

From personal experience, which has been backed up by the numerical analysis I've done, as a class gets bigger the proportion of people who do nationals drops. There's a pretty good reason - in a small class you don't get many other chances to sail in a decent fleet. In something like the Lasers there are plenty of other chances to sail in a decent fleet, and many people would find the nationals fleet too big for comfort.

The ratio in my experience ranges from about 200% of the active boats doing the nationals (ie twice as many boats that race at club or regatta level came out for the nationals) to less than 10%, with the Laser way down the lower end of the scale or even off it.


Edited by CT249 - 22 Jul 22 at 12:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jul 22 at 12:46pm
Originally posted by fab100

 

Cats may be even worse, with the lifecycle longevity of a flying ant, it seems to me. There’s always a fundamental revision or new, better cat class along in a minute. In a cat you pay no attention to a 5 degree shift. In an ILCA miss it and lose several places. 


I know this is wildly off topic, but this isn’t true and needs challenging…
For starters cats have low rig tension and small, tightly curved panels so they stiff forever.  The sails are thick and fully battened and as often as not the masts are carbon so don’t need UV maintenance.  Something new may come along, but the rating system allows older designs to compete unless you are elite standard. And you don’t ignore a 5 degree shift, you just don’t necessarily tack on it.  You still need to respond to it though.

But anyhow, the ILCA does seem to have awakened and showing better turnout at the nationals than for a long time.
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