Clubs still allowing sailing

Originally posted by sargesail   Taking off immeasurably - maybe not! Listen to today’s More or Less on R4 set out the statistical analysis that the measures in place before lockdown were working, produced the current plateau and had an R0 figure of less than 1. Rightly the focus is currently on other stats...but this will matter.

Originally posted by polc1410   Spain has not allowed any exercise. Is that what people want?

Originally posted by iGRF If you take this to it's logical conclusion all the time we remain compliant, it's going to lead to the obvious division of those 'certificated immune' and those not, with freedoms applied to one group not the other.

That's unlikely to be an early measure. Firstly we don't actually know what titre of antibody is needed to provide immunity.

Secondly, we don't have testing for immunity set up, so on the assumption they will balls that up as much as RT-RNA testing you will be waiting a while.

Meanwhile on average 450 people die every day and have been for some time of cancer. I don't see the same hysteria being applied to why that is.

Reporting ~ 800 deaths a day. We know that's likely ~ 1200 including community.

People still die of cancer as well

More will die because ITU can not sustain those numbers.

In fact I have wondered over the years why cancer has become so prevalent of late, was it the airborn Nuclear tests of the fifites, was it Chernobyl, is it Fukushima? Is it Wifi, will it be 5G? Whatever, it's not part of the febrile media focus right now,

None of the above.
Chernobyl and Fukushima >> locally yes. Not significantly I'm UK.

WiFI. No. 5G... Must be bloody impressive since it's not really in existence most of UK.

But what has changed:

- people live longer. We save people from heart attacks, strokes, infections, major trauma. As a result people live longer. Cancer is the result of copying DNA more than it should have been and making errors.

- smoking. The effect is latent.

- pollution

- asbestos- think we should be peaking

- diet. Alcohol and obesity are major factors. In the 50's people couldn't afford to be fat.

right now we're concerned about a flu virus that at 178,000 has yet to reach seasonal flu death rates of 600,000 I read somewhere today.

it's not a flu. Flu is a different virus particle. This produces a flu like illness.

178k deaths. But exponential growth - even at slowing rates of doubling weekly would mean 600k is less than fortnight away. No evidence this will be seasonal unlike flu.

That 178k... Is that reported deaths from covid? As we've seen,that number is not actually that reliable. The flu value is normally calculated as the excess deaths each year from any cause, because very few are tested and reported as such. If that's the comparison... You may have hit 600k already and not know it.

The panic has caused over demand for everything from toilet rolls to PPE.

No PPE demand is because the plan didn't have enough. Not some false panic like big roll.

The search is on for death rates, there is anecdotal evidence in my world of at least one 'was going to die', 'wanted to die having lost his wife', was in a hospice on his last legs not eating and yet the death was still recorded as Covi19 related. Everybody dies, everybody knows someone who's died, more so of cancer than covid just yet and even then in the past, it would have been called pneumonia brought on by flu, unremarkable. People with pneumonia would be on ventilators, in a flu epidemic there would be a shortage of ventilators, there just wouldn't have been a global media induced hysterical panic. When this is over, people will still be dying at the rate of 450 a day here of cancer will anyone bat an eyelid?

So 90% of deaths have an underlying health condition. That doesn't mean90% of deaths were people going to die this year. High blood pressure is an underlying health condition for these stats. Diabetes. A stroke 5 years ago, Cancer (even if cured) in the last 5years. These are all things that might expect to reduce your life expectancy. But not to kill you this year.

The 85+ health & care staff who have died, wouldn't have caught cancer from their patients. More NHS staff have died - almost certainly saving lives of others - than people died in 7/7. And we ain't done yet. That number will be 3 or 4 times that - at least. If a gun man went into A&E and killed all the staff several times over would that be acceptable?

We will return to 450 cancer deaths - yes. But not before they also surge because the health care system hasn't been able to maximise their care.

In a normal bad flu year, yes it gets bad. But not bad like currently. 2009 was bad. Some of the planning for now, was the same plans being considered back then. But we had 4 key advantages:

* The existing vaccine was about 40% effective. Every healthcare worker should have been covered. Every at risk patient too.

* Population immunity was also a bout 40% effective

* The timing was approaching spring for a winter illness. Summer helped fix it.

* We had massive strategic stockpiles of antivirals that have (some) efficacy

None of the above apply to this virus.

As a result of the above,swine flu had an R0 of 1.4. covid has an R0 of at least 2.4. there was media hype for swine flu. The difference is this time the death curve has been exactly what was predicted, whereas with swine flu it turned out to be a bit of a damp squib. If you want a "proper flu outbreak" go back 102 years. There was no demand for Ventilators. They didn't exist. But millions died.

Lockdown has reduced the R0 to less than 1. That's through some barbaric measures like not allowing relatives to be in hospital.

Missing out a bit of sailing is the least of your worries. But people looking at for reasons lockdown doesn't apply to them, is the problem.

Spain has not allowed any exercise. Is that what people want?

I fully accept both 423 and Maxi points, and I'm not expecting a return to normal club activities anytime soon, but as I've said time and again this period is engendering a really wrong culture, it's bad enough folk are encouraged to rat on their neighbours, but it smacks of Post War East Germany and the Stasi. We shouldn't be turning on one another, there is only one source for blame and it's Chinese shaped.

However it still doesn't mean that lone wolf exercise by whatever means should be banned providing it fulfils government guidelines, wether that's an Olympic hopeful out training with their own rescue support, or a lone windsurfer fully capable of self rescue, or SUP rider. Here locally we've already had conflicting messages from the local bobby (isn't it amazing there are now bobbys on the beat when the task is simply to sort soft targets) he said to a chum of mine who carried his Sup down to the beach that it is perfectly OK for him to use it. Meanwhile all the SUP members in our club have no chance since the place is locked and barred they couldn't take their board out if they wanted to, nor can any of us freesail in a dinghy, which I accept may in certain cases be a rescue risk.

Most of the above is unacceptable.