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Sussex Lad View Drop Down
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Posts: 360 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: 2019 RYA PYs
    Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 10:04pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Sussex Lad, you are assuming that a "better" system will be less flawed. Given the biggest variable in the system is the nut on the tiller, I don't agree that cutting the base figures differently, or throwing technology onto the water, is making anything more accurate. It is simply making the inaccuracies more hi-tech.



I'm struggling with your reasoning. Having thought about your rather long sentence I can only assume that you assumed that I was assuming  Wink Yes, in this post I am assuming.
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Posts: 145 		Post Options Post Options   Quote NickM99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 7:25pm
In club racing, well sailed slow boats will always be disadvantaged by having to duel with poorly sailed fast boats, but in small club fleets you can usually find clear air. I have been wondering if, in the Great lakes series with a large fleets and a lot of dirty air, this could be a factor in some more generous handicaps for slower boats compared to the PY handicap.
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 7:11pm
Is there a graph for Sundays? Average speed down by a couple of knots?
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 7:08pm
Pretty sure JimC has mentioned windy/less windy years.

If many of the returns come from inland, maybe look at weed growth too. Must be worse for fast boats?
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 6:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 6:29pm
And these figures that show more recent years.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 6:26pm
Originally posted by fab100


Originally posted by Peaky

Ain’t that the truth. Arguably though, that’s the point. No class of boat in reality gets slower, yet PYs go up. That is counter intuitive. In fact they are going up either because a. they were wrongly assessed in the first place or b. Other boats have got faster but this is reflected in raising other boats PY rather than reducing the quicker boat’s PY.

Surely, not that simple. 
The PY system is not necessarily/solely about any class of boat getting quicker (or slower) per se, it's a compound of that (thru better set-ups and systems, specification changes, whatever) AND how well in aggregate those boats were sailed in handicap races where returns were filed AND how conditions and courses in those races suited those boats (another thread perhaps, are there 'windy' years and 'light-airs' years or does it truly average out?)
A bandit boat is often that because it has historically been sailed by the less experienced (in handicap races where returns were filed). Then the hot-shots pile in and, well, we all know the rest.

All true, I was simplifying. I was looking into the question of whether there were windy years (or even decades) the other day, to see whether that may have been a cause behind the trend in PY deflation in sub 1100 boats. Data is very generalised, but I did find this paper that shows that wind speeds have been dropping over the last 50 years or so on average, maybe by a couple of knots.
Here is one figure from it.
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 5:57pm
Sussex Lad, you are assuming that a "better" system will be less flawed. Given the biggest variable in the system is the nut on the tiller, I don't agree that cutting the base figures differently, or throwing technology onto the water, is making anything more accurate. It is simply making the inaccuracies more hi-tech.
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iGRF View Drop Down
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Posts: 6499 		Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by Rupert

Back in the day of paper returns, numbers rarely changed. What we have seen with the Laser, at least with the big changes early on, is the boat being given a handicap which actually reflects how fast it is. The clubs I was at, the nettings I did, it was very rare for even the best sailed Lasers to win events. Now, I gather that it is as possible in a Laser as in any other boat.

So, we could have fixed the Laser at 1078. When returns proved that to be unkind, every other boat handicap, whether records showed it to be fair against non-lasers, would have had to be adjusted.

Or just start again, I suppose, call the Laser 1000 (or 100, or 10000, I suppose) and fix it. But maybe there was a reason to move away from this in the first place?

I'm not sure how numbers of returns affects this. It simply makes the changes to the Laser more accurate, so all the more reason to move it. It doesn't affect the fact that moving 99 other handicaps to allow for one static number is going to cause more headaches at club level.

Graphs are lovely, but we are dealing with people.


Agreed, but, it's only a one time calculation right now a ten precent reduction for everyone, then fix the Laser and we all pivot about it, there's a strong case for a slow down with Moths speeds in the 500's. I did try it once to see wether I could persuade our lot, but hell I couldn't persuade them to have a brand new club and better parking and launching facilities, the chances of messing with the laserati internally would be zero.

Edited by iGRF - 11 Mar 19 at 5:58pm
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Sussex Lad View Drop Down
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Posts: 360 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Mar 19 at 5:31pm
Originally posted by Eisvogel

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

There isn't any doubt that a significant number of club sailors would like to see improvements to the system [...]


Your arguments are fairly predictable, seen them before a thousand times and they are no less convincing now.
I think it is impossible to have a perfect system,
Yep
 for reasons mentioned by others already, and thus everyone will always complain about it.
No doubt.

Ideally you will have a different PY for each boat based on wind strength at various times and locations during the race, the course, the venue, the age of the boat, the size of waves, the shiftiness of the wind, and a whole lot of other factors. This is of course not feasible.
Obviously not. This is why the PY system should only be used on a series of races where you will get a variety of conditions, thus everyone hopefully gets a bite of the cherry. One seriously handicapping factor that remains constant throughout a series though is tide. The effect of tide can be calculated with the data that the RYA already has, just needs more number crunching.

So why do people even pretend that we can ever get this unicorn of a perfect system that suddenly solves all problems with handicap racing?
Don't think I've ever seen anyone propose a unicorn effect. I'm certainly not.

 Of course I also get annoyed that some boat class seems to be too fast for its handicap, but so what? I just grin and bear it, and try to beat them anyway. And if I don't manage it, I have a good excuse :)
Good for you. 

And throwing money at the problem is, IMHO, a complete waste of time and effort. The PY system is an approximation, and will never be anything else.
I wasn't suggesting throwing money at it..........Nothing can be perfected in this world does that mean we should give up on it all. Why are you so opposed to improving a flawed system? It defies all logic. Are you sailing a bandit? Wink

.......and your argument does not address my statement "I would be interested to see how much cash the RYA commits to developing the PY system"


Edited by Sussex Lad - 11 Mar 19 at 5:42pm
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