The Tasar v the Icon

Originally posted by kneewrecker However, what I don't get is why others on here seem to think that a consistent sample from one sailor is anything other than a gift in providing some guidance to an EN.

For exactly the reason I just gave in the other thread, the system is supposed to be a fair average from a variety of abilities and venues, if it is to be one figure used by all.

No more than it would be fair if the number were constructed purely from coastal open water, it is not fair that it's constructed from inland, nor from one better than average sailors performance in conditions you can bet he knew he'd be advantaged.

Hi Jim

Nobody is suggesting he does not know about stats .... the point is that he does know !  As has been highlighted we can all be highly selective with our 'sample' selection and sample size if we are promoting a view either way.   Bottom line is a Delphi kind of approach at this stage for new classes, as argued, perhaps backed up by simple comparative trials, is pretty certain  to be more useful.

Hi Jeepers

You are of course absolutely right !   I do know however that at least one 'other' out there is monitoring this particular 'lie of the land' as they anticipate the future.   We are just the occasional ‘stalking horse’ for others here ..... 

The standard approach remains - 'Have a go in Icon yourself'  but it does us little harm if some, yet to try one themselves in anger, keep saying what a fantastically fast boat we have managed to produce...  Profile and general awareness is vitally important for Icon at this time but the EN/PN stuff is a bore frankly.   In any event we totally agree and it is only the extent to which Icons pace is quick that separates us.  

The PN/EN debate is a bit dry at best and no forum based conclusions, if they were even possible, will prevail anyway.  Perhaps a much more interesting line to consider in relation to Icon would be to  'What do we need to do to make Icon  faster still - while keeping to the 2-sail basic concept ?'  .... and for that matter  'How would you improve/update the Tasar ?'

Mike L.

Edited by blaze720 - 31 Jul 14 at 9:28am

Chaps, you should find out what Mark does for a living before telling him he doesn't know anything about statistics.

I think Marke is spot on with his statistics....

The Math is just dandy fine I'm sure  ... but samples of one or two boats/crews size are simply not 'statistics'.  If they are then I, and quite a few others out here I'd suggest, wasted  far too many years studying the wretched subject in our younger years ! ... and even more years still trying to educate the next generation of misguided fools in some cases. 

The 'guest' last year at Falmouth had Icon experience already and a fair amount of 'form' in other classes ... and so others know it was not exactly Tasar weather was it ?  F2 most of the week was'nt it .. not exactly enough to light any Tasers blue touch paper against much else in my experience at least !   There were NOT any number of 'other classes' at Paignton on our start line either so where did that one come from ?  We raced in very modest numbers overall and the 'rest' were how many after the 4 Icons and a Tasar ?  Anecdotes of perceived 'superiority'... don't really help any more than ones of perceived or anecdotal 'inferiority' ...which was my exact point by relating the tale of crews who do not produce great results.  

We have simply suggested an new approach that is based on independent assessment at first - so what exactly is wrong with that for 'new classes' ?  Why should  this suggestion cause so much agro ?

I'm delighted Tasar owners still love their boats just as I did way back when I owned them (several in fact) ...  lovely things that deserved greater popularity and perhaps still do ... They can be quick as well but suffer disproportionately in the light stuff.  This is not 'knocking' as all Tasar owners know this well ..  We worked to develop Icon to match the high wind abilities of the Tasar but also to ensure  the lighter wind capabilities were also reaasonable and to do so in a boat that could carry a crew of reasonable weight.    

Now why not try a really radical approach ... just try one yourselves on the water.  We offer the boats to take away and try -  you only have to collect and return them.  Then tell us what you think but even then only if your want. 

Mike L.

(And thank you God - I'm racing 'other stuff' in August - light relief is required  !)'       

 


Edited by blaze720 - 30 Jul 14 at 9:48pm

(oops Rupert and Bootscooter beat me to it - and more succinctly too)

Mike

Yes I was aware of "18"'s heritage - I'm a regular visitor to its old club.

I don't want to prolong the discussion either - but you are missing the point of what I was trying to do in the original post.  I refer you to JimC's post which put it rather succinctly.  I'm not trying to say that we have a representative sample that covers all sailing areas and skill factors - we have one boat with a known crew skill factor sailing against a set of other boats with a known skill factor (because we have all been sailing against one another for 15 or more years in the same classes and different classes - we don't tend to move much in Devon).  I can back up these relative performances between sailors with a database going back 10 years with more than 20,000 data points.  I can see a clear change with the Icon that I haven't seen before which leads me to believe that for our open water the local PN is likely to come down from our 978 rather than go up.  I'm not making any other claims.

Personally I think that is a good thing and Cirrus should be applauded.  I'm sorry you appear to think that I am being negative towards the Icon - just the opposite.

As an aside - if we could get the clubs to provide CSF info with their returns the whole PY thing would be a whole lot easier and could use MUCH smaller sample size than are necessary today.

Back to your post.  Observation is a reasonable approach and is specifically proposed by the RYA as a way to get an initial estimate at a club.  But in practice this is only possible if you have a good idea of the relative crew skill.  So for the fleet captains at SYC it was pretty easy to watch a couple of races and say "bit quicker than Merlin (990), bit slower than a Hornet (969)" and come up with 978.  If I went as an observer to a big SailJuice event it would be a lot harder as I wouldn't be able to judge CSF.


Edited by marke - 30 Jul 14 at 4:06pm