The Tasar v the Icon

Originally posted by marke

I really shouldn't but lets look at some real data.  One of the top sailors in our club  (possibly the best, certainly in the top 6) has acquired an Icon and has been racing in our handicap fleets this season.  We use local handicaps for most of our classes and this was set initially at 978 for the Icon. The table below is their achieved PN for the Icon for the last 14 races (note: these are not cherry picked this is taken directly from our results database for this season).

Autumn Series 4                    908        
Autumn Series 5                    960    
Autumn Series 6                    993    
Autumn Series 7                    896    
Humbug Series 1                    955        
Evening Series 3                    988        
Evening Series 4                    911        
Spring Series 6                      916        
Squires Cup                          919        
Summer Series 1                    950        
Crash Boat/Upwright Trophies    890        
Summer Series 3                    920    
Summer Series 4                    924    
Summer Series 5                    930    
                                            [ average PY = 933 ]     

Now I'm sure someone will say that they must be sailing in an uncompetitive fleet.  Well that fleet contains regular participation of three of the other top 6 helms in the club, the top Hornet sailor in the country (multiple European/national champion), two other hornet sailors who have finished in the top 5 at the nationals, another recent hornet convert who was Laser 2 world champion (several times), a streaker and a wayfarer who have finished in the top 6 at their Nationals, and ~9 modern well sorted  Merlin Rockets, one of whom was second at the recent 100+ boat Salcombe Merlin week and several others that do well in open meetings and local regattas.  In all those races the Icon has only been beaten by the top Hornet once (by a few seconds) - the Hornet sails off 969 at our club. I can't recall any  Merlin beating the Icon on any occasion on any course, in any wind strength.

Since we have a 10 year online database of results at the club we can also take another look at the data by looking at personal "overachievement" for the same team in different boats over time (i.e. the % the average achieved PN is different from the allocated PN) .

RS200    +1.6%
B14        +2.1%
RS800    +1.8%
RS500    +2.4%
RS300    +1.9%
Laser    +0.8%
Icon    +4.6%

An average "overachievement" for a sailor of 2% is extremely good.  Note how consistent they are over time apart from the Icon which shows a dramatic performance jump.  Now there could be several reasons for this - I think we can discount that the team have suddenly improved dramatically.  It could be:
a) the Icon suits our sailing conditions (open water, bit tidal, bit lumpy, estuary courses (not W/L) ) better than all the other boats, and/or
b) The local PY is a bit generous

I reckon it is a bit of both.  Either way there is a general consensus that our local handicapping scheme (which includes crew skill factor analysis) will resolve the issue over time - and the resolution will still have the Icon winning lots of races (as they should as they are very good).  My guess however is that the local PN will not be going up!.

There is another recent data point on open water.  The Paignton Double Hander event was held in June and was won by the Starcross Icon sailing of a PN of 969.  They had a close tussle over the weekend with Malcolm/Fiona Davis - a top Taser sailor (3rd at the last Taser worlds in the UK - and top Taser World Master) - definitely a sailor at the same skill level.  Taser won 2, Icon won 3.  That event certainly didn't demonstrate that the EN was wrong.

I know GRF has given us another data point - i.e. if he hadn't hit a buoy, and had learned how to tack, and hadn't been struggling for grip, and had been given an EN of 1000 then he might have won a recent race.  I'm inclined not to give too high a weighting to that evidence.

Where is all the data (with suitable CSF applied) that the EN is wildly wrong - if there is data why isn't it on PYS (I can't find it).

The irony of this post is that I have been interested in the Icon for some time and it would really suit me and my current crew very nicely.  I sailed an NS14 about 10 years ago and it really was a lovely boat to sail.  I even have the money for one burning a hole in my boat fund and will give the Starcross one a go soon.  Like Jim, I am just struggling to get past the whinging and whining to try and get what would demonstrably be a bandit handicap (1000 would be laughable), and the continuing insults to volunteers and the RYA - not classy at all and not something I'm sure I want to be associated with. Given that what I want is a boat that goes faster than a Merlin without the complexity why doesn't the marketing reflect that great achievement, rather than telling me things that don't seem to be true.

P.S we will be submitting our returns for all classes to the PYS as normal.

Edited by marke - 29 Jul 14 at 3:43pm