New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: New Singlehanders: PYs
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Register Register  Login Login

New Singlehanders: PYs
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234 5>
Author
  Share Topic Share Topic  Topic Search Topic Search  Topic Options Topic Options
Medway Maniac View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 13 May 05
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2788 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Medway Maniac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: New Singlehanders: PYs
    Posted: 21 May 14 at 9:27am
I didn't suggest a figure for the Fire as we don't know the final specs, although I guess it might be fun to speculate.

Rupert, I don't think you are giving enough credit to the low weight of the Aero.

Those HISC PY’s are probably a bit harsh, but that is the right way for a club to go, especially for a big event. You don't want a new boat walking away with it just because you've guessed wrongly.
Wilsonian SC
3000 Class
Back to Top
kneewrecker View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 09 Apr 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1586 		Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 9:48am
Originally posted by JimC

There are two systems I'm aware of which aim to predict a PY number from dimensions. One is Dan's spreadsheet which is a form of VPP, and the other is Peaky's regression analysis for the singlehanded classes. If the numbers for all those boats are plumbed into those two separate systems, and they come up with answers in the same sort of ballpark, then I'd think that as good a basis for a trial number as anything else.

I'd be more than comfortable going with that approach TBH.  I guess the question is, who is in authority to recommend clubs adopts that protocol until such time as an EN can be published?  


Edited by kneewrecker - 21 May 14 at 9:49am
Back to Top
Null View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 May 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 745 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Null Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:15am
Originally posted by kneewrecker

Originally posted by JimC

There are two systems I'm aware of which aim to predict a PY number from dimensions. One is Dan's spreadsheet which is a form of VPP, and the other is Peaky's regression analysis for the singlehanded classes. If the numbers for all those boats are plumbed into those two separate systems, and they come up with answers in the same sort of ballpark, then I'd think that as good a basis for a trial number as anything else.

I'd be more than comfortable going with that approach TBH.  I guess the question is, who is in authority to recommend clubs adopts that protocol until such time as an EN can be published?  

This is a very good point, most sailing clubs need a helping hand or something as a start for ten.  i guess my club would look at what the manufacturer recommends.  Perhaps it would be good to get some kind of ratification of the systems to enable manufacturers to recommend a PY, which could be implemented as an EN.  My club, as i suspect many! Would almost certainly just use the supplied EN and not in anyway alter the number.  
Back to Top
Dougaldog View Drop Down
Far too distracted from work
Far too distracted from work


Joined: 05 Nov 10
Location: hamble
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 356 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Dougaldog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:15am
Just for the record, at Netley SC, (Dan's home SC, where much of the Punk sailing has taken place) the boat was sailed for the past 2 or 3 seasons of 1024. Even that looked generous at times, I was RO and watched the Punk dicing on the water with a very well sailed Merlin and Contender. Now clearly you'd need to take the Dan effect into consideration and if the Punk (in it's original guise) were still to be sailing here, that 1024 could well have been amended further.

But take out the Dan effect and you'd be left with a figure - from practical observation (not to mention results) of somewhere between 1030 and 1035.

D
Dougal H
Back to Top
Null View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 May 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 745 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Null Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:17am
Really interesting that the 'Dan' effect is only worth around 6-11 points.  I would expect it to be even more!  
Back to Top
Medway Maniac View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 13 May 05
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2788 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Medway Maniac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:21am
Quote kneewrecker: I'd be more than comfortable going with that approach TBH.  I guess the question is, who is in authority to recommend clubs adopts that protocol until such time as an EN can be published?  Given the consistency and reliability of data, I'd go with the RYA feedback approach, especially now that the feedback is more regular.


Estimates such as I make are good for setting an initial figure, but I'm happy if I get within 10-20 points.  There are too many variables I can't assess.  

Thus there are some boats whose performance continues to baffle me, such as the Scorpion and Merlin. 

Also an out and out planer like the 49er - it's hard to know how much of the time they'll be planing, i.e. how much you should weight the overall PY to the planing figure you come up with and how much to the displacement.


Edited by Medway Maniac - 21 May 14 at 10:23am
Wilsonian SC
3000 Class
Back to Top
JimC View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 17 May 04
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:24am
From the limited amount of data I've gathered at my club I'd suggest that the gap between a typical mid fleet club sailor and a front of fleet at opens sailor is in the 5% to 10% range.
Back to Top
kneewrecker View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 09 Apr 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1586 		Post Options Post Options   Quote kneewrecker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:32am
Originally posted by Null

 

This is a very good point, most sailing clubs need a helping hand or something as a start for ten.  i guess my club would look at what the manufacturer recommends.  Perhaps it would be good to get some kind of ratification of the systems to enable manufacturers to recommend a PY, which could be implemented as an EN.  My club, as i suspect many! Would almost certainly just use the supplied EN and not in anyway alter the number.  

All it needs is some open communication- no one expects either the PYAG to get it spot on first time.  And I doubt the manufacturer is best placed to really comment- their perceptions are all out, especially if only a professional design team have really stepped into the boat, and thus dialled it in with extensive R&D...  somewhat different from Joe Public jumping in it for a Wednesday night drift.  

But I certainly expect not to have PY 'abused' into the marketing message as has been the case in the past, although I hasten to add, never from Devoti or Suntouched.  Manufacturers have no authority to issue a PY - recommended or otherwise.    

Similarly I really don't think a club or event deliberately hampering a new design with a very harsh number is fair play either, and of course such action will be perceived as protectionist towards established classes.  But what are they to do if there is no independent assessment / endorsement to take in to consideration?    

The point of the EN is to accelerate change to fairer racing based on stronger statistical evidence.  But I agree, we / everyone involved - including our competitors in solid statistic boats, needs a starting point and personally, I'd rather that the starting point had some oversight from the PYAG before approaching what will be to me, a new club committee with a suggested EN.

  
Back to Top
JimC View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 17 May 04
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6662 		Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:41am
Originally posted by kneewrecker

I'd rather that the starting point had some oversight from the PYAG

For what my *personal* opinion is worth there's quite enough on our plate before opening that can of worms. It would mean effectively administering two utterly separate systems. The emphasis has got to be on keeping the PY system as useful as possible for the majority of club sailors.
Back to Top
Rupert View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 11 Aug 04
Location: Whitefriars sc
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 8956 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 14 at 10:51am
Sure it will take most clubs a few races to see what boats their new boats are keeping pace with, and then these numbers will be fed back to the RYA. They may be wildly different at some clubs compared to others - this is to be expected. The RYA then collate the figures and produce an EN. But the early stage is up to the club, not the RYA, and the only way is to have boats on the water sailing. People just have to accept that for the first few races, they might not even have a number, as they find out the abilities of the boat.
Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1234 5>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz
Change your personal settings, or read our privacy policy