R Speculation

Neil, with respect why should they?  They don't for any other class....The whole point of a py is it's pulled together by a mixed set of statistics using all different result sets.  I have loads of friends from the phantom fleet mate, but let's be fair part of the massive growth in the class in recent years has been down to over generous py.  now it's where it should be (the statistics don't lie) you guys need to suck it up a little.  I still believe it's a fairly untouchable boat in the right conditions.  It also benefits from a massive open circuit so forget the py rubbish and enjoy a great boat and a great bunch of guys.

Originally posted by NeilB-Phantom I sail my phant on the sea and 1012 was hard enough, 1002 is definitely a no win situation. The RYA could easily split inland and sea clubs out of the stats only needs one field on the input and a sort option!

This.

There is no way on earth you can sail a Phantom to 1002 on the sea except in exceptional circumstances.

Personally I think the 1002 figure for the Phantom is tough.   The class does have a great circuit and a lot of good helms …. Limited compensation that might be though.  My suggestion is to get the class to focus on the Sailjuice series next year and put up its own class prizes for results extracted from the overall handicap.   SJ of course reserve the right to adjust numbers ... and do so on the assumption that ALL classes are crewed by 'front of fleet' types... and by and large the standard is very good across the vast majority of classes attending.

Do this and in time see what their adjusted numbers are doing.   The SJ system is relatively young but it does try to tackle the 'crew effect' ... something the 'official' system cannot cope with nor does it seek to incorporate.  A fair proportion of Phantoms are sailed by very capable helms and the boat is very very quick in suitable conditons - I know as I race against them often enough ...  Remember the official returns can only compare 'your' fleet with the other local classes you race against at club level .. if the Phantom has partly drained the local talent pond at some clubs this would not be a surprise to anyone.  One consequence of this being that the boat is then 'normalised' against the remaining handicap raced boats ... at those same clubs.     In other words your club return for the Phantom can only compare you directly against the other local handicap boats you have raced against during that year.... 

My statistical education was a very long time ago now so I'll not crunch many numbers today.  But some classes end up dominating their club racing at certain clubs.  They might suit the waters/conditions and/or they may as I speculate partially drain the local talent from other boats.  I'm thinking of other classes as well like Tasars at 2 or 3 clubs that probably make up a high proportion of the Tasar annual returns, maybe even RS 300 at a couple and so on.    I cannot remember any Tasars winning any major handicaps ... well ever.   They have always been tough to sail to handicap in a major event even if they can dominate at club level at some location.  I suspect the growing  concentration of 300's at a few clubs is also pushing it down the same path.   Merlins could well be another example  -  it is widely acknowledged that the front of the fleet is very talented and I suspect the bulk of their ‘official’ returns come from a limited number of clubs where they have drained the talent pond to an extent. They are fast but are made to look faster still because they are compared to the remainder of handicap boats at those same club only.

Anyway it would be interesting for a keen number cruncher to look at the degree of class concentration around the clubs .. as expressed in the returns.  My hunch is high class/club concentration will be at least be associated with a lowering PN number.  It will also be interesting to track the ‘Official’ PN with the GL/SJ ones and look at the variances between the two sets.  We cannot directly or objectively measure all effects however important they might be like relative 'crew ability' but the degree of class/club concentration must be there in the data already. 

I was not a fan of the Great Lakes / SJ system originally but after a few seasons I've come to think of them as superior in some respects.  Their adjusted numbers will not be universally popular either but it does attempt to deal with the some of the limitations of the current official approach rather well. 

So … Don’t worry too much about club racing would be my approach.  And possibly go after the Sailjuice series next year.  If enough of you turn up you get a good race anyway and the stats over time might be very interesting as well ..

Mike L.

Originally posted by blaze720    I cannot remember any Tasars winning any major handicaps ... well ever.   They have always been tough to sail to handicap in a major event even if they can dominate at club level at some location.

Originally posted by Hector Spot on.