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Hector View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Hector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by MattHarris

Just checked and it looks ok on mine.  Whilst checking I also noticed that I've got an "RYA Technical Approved" stamp on the results for the GP (0.7 cf) and Mirror Single Handed (0.6 cf).  Not sure whether this is a new feature or just I've not noticed it before.
On an aside we had a sailing committee meeting last week at which I brought up the PYS website.  Was interesting to see the mix of responses across the sailors.  Ultimately they decided not to adopt the numbers and stick with the RYA list and have another discussion in 12 months with another years data on hand, we should hopefully have a few more stamps of approval by then too.


At the Dinghy Exhibition presentation last year the RYA said  that the National PY number is simply not the right number for the majority of clubs. It is an average of some very iffy returns from the last decade and beyond, and unless a club is that exact 'average' then the figures are wrong for them.
So was there any sound logic to the decision Matt, or was it a case of  not believing the system works / heads in sand / fear of change or backlash / fleets protecting their percieved advantage on your water? Wink

One thing that helped me to persuade some of the more doubtful both on the committee and otherwise, was to print off a few  'Typical Race' results - showing the individual PNs that would have resulted.

Looking at several races the same thing occurred almost every time:

Wiith a roughly 30 boat fleet, the top 2-3 were often from the same class, and had sailed to somewhere around minus 80-100 points below their Yardstick, while the last few boats were sailing to +100points above their yardstick.  Not suprisingly, the middle few sailed roughly to their yardstick (and were often very sailors). Everyone in- between was approx pro-rata to their position.

In other words, for the current winners to not win would need a 100 point PN swing from the mid fleet guys and 200 points from the backmarkers. None of the Class related swings proposed were anywhere near that - especially for those classes with decent confidence, and so there was / is little prospect of big results swings in most races.
The result of the changes we've made has been closer results, with more chance of a mix of fleets in the top 5 rather than a 'Class A N other' whitewash. The same classes still win when you'd expect them to (when conditions suit them) - they just don't dominate the all top places quite as much.

It's worth noting that when we agreed when implementing the changes that we'd review after  the summer series (on the basis that if they were wrong or the racing was spoilt, that we could simply go back to National PNs). In fact, the changes have been widely accepted - even welcomed and increasingly thought a great thing. So much so that we've been encouraged to implement the latest updates in time for our winter series - rather than waiting until next season - we are that pleased with and confident in them! Clap
These latest changes are already more subtle - indicating that the PNs recommended by the PYS system last year weren't far off the mark.

I'd encourage all clubs to consider implementing the changes - at least in part.
For clubs who want to wait  - why not run a shadow series with the adjusted results - discuss those and aim to implement as soon as possible - mid season shouldn't be a problem.

Cheers
Keith

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AlexM View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 2:13pm
RYA Technical Approved" stamp - Yes i've only just seen this too. That's why I was after the graph so I could take a print screen as backing. I think the stamp appears at 0.6 and above.

That's a shame about your Sailing Committee especailly as you've got really good data for the GP and Mirror. And lets be honest the changes to be applied hardly make any significant difference to results.

Edit - better post from Keith while i was typing.

Edited by AlexM - 02 Nov 12 at 2:17pm
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JimC View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by Hector

It is an average of some very iffy returns from the last decade and beyond,

You must have misunderstood. It isn't. They don't use returns more than three years old.

Edited by JimC - 02 Nov 12 at 2:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote MattHarris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 3:04pm
I think there was definately a degree of a fear of change, the concerns coming from those who thought they had most to loose (a dropping handicap).  There are also quite a few classes only sailed by one or two individuals which brought up a discussion on whether it was a personal handicap, again a valid point.

The other points which didn't help were rescoring the previous series results and whilst everything became much closer (3 points separating the top 4 vs 7pts) there was no overall change.  This lead to a query of why bother if its going to cause an upset? - which I can fully understand.  Equally the other problem was adding 3 pts to a streaker.  Whilst mathematically there is virtually no difference (something like 9 secs an hour?), everyone knows the streaker already has a generous handicap on brand new boats and so it leads to a drop in confidence of the other numbers produced.
 
 
It was very good to be able to say that L&L (who are seen as a larger local club) are using their numbers and with more clubs addopting them it may be easier to implement the numbers next year.  We shall see, either way I look forward to how the numbers change in March with what should be a large amount of real race data available.
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AlexM View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 3:59pm
Matt, could you send me the pdf of your classes over 0.6? Thinking of running the idea past the committeeto see if we'd use some of your data (not that we have many GP's)
Alex
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 4:00pm
we pushed really hard at the beginng of the year to implement our schedule of using any new number that has a cf over 0.3 at the beginning of every series.  i will find the list of changes and post them here later.  it has worked quite effectively, and keeps people on their toes! 
we made a rule that if you win 3 consecutive races and your handicap is below the 0.3cf we would change the handicap to whatever number was given, as yet no one has managed that, please draw your own conclusions... is it stable numbers? unstable sailors? bandits dont exsist? Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Hector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 4:20pm
Originally posted by JimC

Originally posted by Hector

It is an average of some very iffy returns from the last decade and beyond,

You must have misunderstood. It isn't. They don't use returns more than three years old.


Apologies - what I meant to say was that the historic numbers were kept the same or very similar by decades of iffy data. The reason the numbers that we're all familiar with and that hardly ever changed or only did so a little was because there was
  1. A very low rate of returns (I seem to recall about 25% of clubs).
  2. Of the returns, the majority (ISTR approx 70%) returned  'No change'.

On investigation, the No Change returns were usually because the results person hadn't done the labourious task of calculating the actual return. So a majority of returns constantly weighted the average towards No (or little) Change - but with no actual analysis of results.

Of those returning a change, there were few who'd calculated actual PNs - again most made an educated guess.

Or at least thats what I understood from the RYA presentation(s).

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Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 8:27pm
What I have found very interesting looking at the PY recommendations results for my classes which have been posted here for various clubs, (the RS300 and the L2K), is that (unsurprsingly) at the clubs with very good sailors the recommendation is a drop, and for those where they are average a rise.

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote pondmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 10:02am
Originally posted by sargesail

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.

almost certainly... and isn't that the fundamental paradox of this entire system?  The boats who need this system the most are the ones whose data is so unrepresentative of the 'class average'.  

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Contender443 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 1:29pm
Originally posted by pondmonkey

Originally posted by sargesail

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.

almost certainly... and isn't that the fundamental paradox of this entire system?  The boats who need this system the most are the ones whose data is so unrepresentative of the 'class average'.  

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
Local conditions and course sailed also come into play as well. I am sailing against well sailed Laser 2s on triangle sausage courses. When they can trapeze and carry their kites on a reach I don't stand a chance in the 100. It also means they can trapeze the beats and are fully powered up when I am de-powering. Then the runs are invariably with the tide so I spend more time beating than running...
 
Blinking Laser 2s.....(mild rant over).
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