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r2d2 View Drop Down
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Far too distracted from work


Joined: 29 Sep 11
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Posts: 350 		Post Options Post Options   Quote r2d2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 12 at 9:45am
the same would go for your 300 number:-)
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Oli View Drop Down
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Really should get out more


Joined: 23 Mar 05
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Posts: 1020 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 5:00pm
this is what we have gotten back so far from 467 races. we are looking at making changes when handicaps reach 0.3cf and above.
 
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AlexM View Drop Down
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Joined: 10 Jan 06
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Posts: 857 		Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 5:17pm
Good job! I only started doing this for the club last year so only had last years races (150) so i think i need more races'.
I was going to wait till I got a cf of higher than 0.7 or whenever the comment changed to high. I think if we started changing them at 0.3 (Low) it would be hard to convince some! Is 0.5 medium??

Alex
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Hector View Drop Down
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Joined: 10 May 04
Location: Otley, Yorkshire
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Posts: 750 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Hector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by AlexM

PM Chrisg he's very good at sorting it out :)

Over night and not uploading anymore results my reports page has changed again....



I'm confused,  - how/why has it changed if you haven't uploaded any more results?




I also can't login using the old details - and haven't had any response from RYA yet.
Keith
29er 661 (with my daughters / nephew)
49er 688 (with Phil P)
RS200 968
Vortex (occasionally)
Laser 2049XX
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AlexM View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 10 Jan 06
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Posts: 857 		Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 6:06pm
Looking back at the reports given at the time it seems the date range has changed therefore including more of my results. I think they must be still sorting a few things out.

I'm using my old login, slop_idol are you using yours?

Alex
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sargesail View Drop Down
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Joined: 14 Jan 06
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Posts: 1459 		Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 8:53pm
Originally posted by slop_idol

this is what we have gotten back so far from 467 races. we are looking at making changes when handicaps reach 0.3cf and above.
 

Wow - so the Blaze has one of the highest confidence for a new handicap and would drop 50 points!  And the 400 comes up to 997 admittedly with low confidence (Which makes the speed order Blaze, 300, 400.  Healthy dose of salt required in all this work I feel.
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AlexM View Drop Down
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Joined: 10 Jan 06
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Posts: 857 		Post Options Post Options   Quote AlexM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 9:02pm
No you are reading that wrong.
Blaze has a 0.2 (Low) cofidence which you wouldn't use
The 400 has 0 (even lower) confidence!!

The only new h'cap you'd come close to using is the FB at 0.5 but still isnt there yet.

I think a healthy dose of reading what the results mean before dismissing!
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sargesail View Drop Down
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Joined: 14 Jan 06
Location: United Kingdom
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Posts: 1459 		Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 10:25pm
Sorry I was misread by slop idol posting about using them from 0.3 and upwards....I realise its low, but it's still one of the highest in that table.
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Oli View Drop Down
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Joined: 23 Mar 05
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Posts: 1020 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Oli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Mar 12 at 11:56pm
We have discussed changing at 0.3cf due to it being a good amount of data for the sample size. When we can pool like venues in to the system, and the cf goes up we will use a higher cf before we change, but as it is the boats are currently performing to these numbers and as such should be changed. Now if it turns out to be too harsh the data will go the other way and we will change it again. Its great that the system now reflects this, but I think that having a pre defined low medium and high value against the cf number to be like the old style of defining the yardsticks with primary secondary numbers etc which will scare people off changing numbers.

As for the blaze moving as much as it does, I have to say that it is probably along with the fireball the most suited boat to our stretch of water, therefore it will perform above its percieved performance range for most clubs.  There hasn't been a lot of all in races at the club where either a blaze or fireball hasn't won or dominated as fleet the results in the last few years, the Musto is another one that when conditions suit can't be touched on handicap, so every dog does have its day I guess.

As it stands I think this new system is much better and with perhaps a few minor tweaks and the proposed planned additions it maybe as perfect as handicapping can possibly get.  The trick is not to be scared to change numbers if it looks like they need changing, just make sure everyone knows how you plan to implement changes and that the rules used to apply them are the same for all classes.
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chrisg View Drop Down
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Joined: 23 Mar 07
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Posts: 893 		Post Options Post Options   Quote chrisg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Mar 12 at 8:23am
Alex,

Sometimes I get the problem with not all of the classes appearing in the reports page too. I'll see if Simon has an answer for that, but usually if I press f5 (refresh) not the button on the webpage my classes come back. Dont know if its clicking on reports too soon after logging in or something simple like that.

Glad you have found the site useful. I'd say numbers with a confidence factor of 0.3 which may still be called low on the site are considerably better than finger in the air stuff so saying you'll adjust when you reach that level is fair I'd say. I'll be suggesting something similar to my club. I've got over 530 races in for my club and only get 4 classes with a confidence factor of 0.7. Havent yet managed to achieve anything greater than that.

I think Andys release email, or it may be in the help files, stated that the confidence factor algorithm will be being looked at by the RYA once there is more data in the system but they are pretty confident it is a good starting point. Mark E helped produce it so may have more details. Mark - any thoughts?

For those of you guys who havent got logins, I have been pestering Andy on a daily basis so hopefully you will get them soon.

Any probs please ask.

Chris
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