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Andymac View Drop Down
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Posts: 852 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Andymac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 10:12pm
Thank you Mark for that lucid post.
 
Jimbo, to use your F1 analogy, think of it as a F1 'race' going on around a race track at the same time as a menagerie race that started 30 seconds behind... everyone will be 'racing' for track position at some point whether or not they are in the same 'race'.
The staggered starts or 'flights' is very much a red herring when you also consider that many clubs use average lap times, which mean a faster boat that started in a different flight ahead of a slower boat could actually have a longer race time. It will all average itself out in the end.
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pondmonkey View Drop Down
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Posts: 2202 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pondmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 6:26pm
Mark, I don't need to run the stats to know that boats which have not signed on to race together are NOT racing; neither under the RRS or from basic common sense that would suggest that people need to know they are racing to be complicit in the act.

I had not realised that what Draycote did was so commonplace and to be honest, this only goes to further consolidate my opinion that PY is a wholly unsatisfactory method of running proper racing. I am not suggesting PY is a cause, by rather a reaction to widespread consumer choice, and whilst ordinarily I'm all for free market economics, I do wonder if something has been lost at a lot of clubs by the reduction in fleet racing and in turn, this accounts for dropping participation in the sport as a whole.

Anyway, this is well off topic, I'll leave the number crunching to sailing's bean counters... PY serves them very well.
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marke View Drop Down
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Posts: 211 		Post Options Post Options   Quote marke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 5:34pm
So you've done the analysis to prove that its a bad dataset then have you?

I looked into this issue about a year ago and compared performance from boats when racing on handicap and in class racing (we do both).  I used almost 8000 results from 4 years worth of races.  I couldn't see any trends that would point to different performances from when a boat is sailing on single start handicap race, single start class race, or multiple start class race.  I was trying to work out what was wrong with the laser handicap at our club - but looked across several classes.

Of course I know that on a forum anecdotal evidence always trumps real data. Wink

I think you might be surprised at how many clubs do what draycote do when submitting results - consolidating fleet and handicap results as long as the boats were sailing the same course at roughly the same time.  For many clubs it is easier to do that - as it happens we don't consolidate, but I don't worry about consolidated results skewing the analysis.  You can't honestly believe that this dataset is worse than a club submitting a "no change" return because they can't (or can't be bothered to) submit real data -  as Keith indicated above this is what really does the damage.

Mark


Edited by marke - 06 Nov 12 at 5:36pm
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pondmonkey View Drop Down
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Posts: 2202 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pondmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 3:24pm
Originally posted by MattHarris

I'd agree with you, if boats aren't starting in the same flight together then you shouldn't be putting the results together as if they had sailed the same race.  If they all started at once and then fleets were drawn away from this thats fine. 
However from what you've described the results mean absolutely nothing as if they weren't jockying with each other at the start or obstructing each others wind/tactics - in short they weren't racing each other.  Its like taking the results of the first lap of qualifying on F1 and suggesting theres no difference between this data and the first lap of the actual race.

absolutely +1 - it's not a good data set, thus does a disservice to those relying on quality data to help improve the system.  
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MattHarris View Drop Down
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Posts: 94 		Post Options Post Options   Quote MattHarris Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 3:18pm
I'd agree with you, if boats aren't starting in the same flight together then you shouldn't be putting the results together as if they had sailed the same race.  If they all started at once and then fleets were drawn away from this thats fine. 
However from what you've described the results mean absolutely nothing as if they weren't jockying with each other at the start or obstructing each others wind/tactics - in short they weren't racing each other.  Its like taking the results of the first lap of qualifying on F1 and suggesting theres no difference between this data and the first lap of the actual race.
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pondmonkey View Drop Down
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Posts: 2202 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pondmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 3:01pm
Originally posted by Andymac

Originally posted by pondmonkey

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
 
I don't know about that.
I would be the first to admit that I'm no expert on data/statistical analysis, but I would have thought that a seperate 'fleet' racing around the same cans at/around the same time as the handicap fleet can only help endorse the other numbers (think of it as a 'control sample').
Perhaps you have stumbled upon an additional data source which clubs do not normally submit...

Well it's of course just opinion, but I would have thought that generating data by stealth means, when the competitors themselves don't know they are racing each other, can only produce an anomaly and is hardly representative of a boat-on-boat competitive sport.  Although for racing against a spreadsheet, I guess it something more to argue over in the bar, therefore adds 'intrinsic value' to the PY offering as it stands.

Even at my very modest level of competence, the tactics I'd employ in a handicap race and significantly different to that of a fleet race.  Compound this by the fact that the air disturbance, wind shift pattern (and if you were on the sea) tidal flow of all sailing together is grossly different from splitting out over 'categories' separated by whole starting sequences, well I think you've got a minefield of crap data.  

But I'm no stats whizz either... I'd just go with basic premise that if folks don't know they are racing each other, then I'm afraid it's not a race and any data generated is a load of old cobblers.

  


Edited by pondmonkey - 06 Nov 12 at 3:03pm
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Andymac View Drop Down
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Posts: 852 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Andymac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 2:53pm
Originally posted by pondmonkey

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
 
I don't know about that.
I would be the first to admit that I'm no expert on data/statistical analysis, but I would have thought that a seperate 'fleet' racing around the same cans at/around the same time as the handicap fleet can only help endorse the other numbers (think of it as a 'control sample').
Perhaps you have stumbled upon an additional data source which clubs do not normally submit...
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Contender443 View Drop Down
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Posts: 1211 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Contender443 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 1:29pm
Originally posted by pondmonkey

Originally posted by sargesail

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.

almost certainly... and isn't that the fundamental paradox of this entire system?  The boats who need this system the most are the ones whose data is so unrepresentative of the 'class average'.  

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
Local conditions and course sailed also come into play as well. I am sailing against well sailed Laser 2s on triangle sausage courses. When they can trapeze and carry their kites on a reach I don't stand a chance in the 100. It also means they can trapeze the beats and are fully powered up when I am de-powering. Then the runs are invariably with the tide so I spend more time beating than running...
 
Blinking Laser 2s.....(mild rant over).
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pondmonkey View Drop Down
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Posts: 2202 		Post Options Post Options   Quote pondmonkey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 12 at 10:02am
Originally posted by sargesail

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.

almost certainly... and isn't that the fundamental paradox of this entire system?  The boats who need this system the most are the ones whose data is so unrepresentative of the 'class average'.  

I know our own club data is fudged by blending in results from the fleet boats who aren't even racing in the handicap fleet.  Somehow this is supposed to give our data some added credibility, but I see at nothing more than a farce and ultimately a disservice to those who are actually relying on credible data to help improve their PY racing.   
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sargesail View Drop Down
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Posts: 1456 		Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Nov 12 at 8:27pm
What I have found very interesting looking at the PY recommendations results for my classes which have been posted here for various clubs, (the RS300 and the L2K), is that (unsurprsingly) at the clubs with very good sailors the recommendation is a drop, and for those where they are average a rise.

Especially in the 300 the population of sailors is small enough that I am confident that we are handicapping the individuals not the class.
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