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Handicap racing now pointless? |
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giraffe
Posting king Joined: 10 May 07 Online Status: Offline Posts: 148 |
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Topic: Handicap racing now pointless? Posted: 12 Jan 12 at 9:26pm |
Why should boats not have a different handicap for a mass pursuit race with one start on the one hand (Queen Mary) and an event which groups boats into firstly smaller fleets and secondly more by genre (Grafham GP).
If I had a relatively slower boat (eg a N12, phantom, solo or an RS200) I would expect that a pursuit race handicap (where I start first and sail in clear air) would penalise me more than in a handicap race when if I am going well I will be sailing in the dirt of a Merlin Rocket or a Fireball. I like the QM idea where handicaps of less than 10 different are essentially ignored as the race starts every 60 seconds. By the end of the race the leading boats are 10 minutes ahead of anyone outside the top 30. What the hell are people complaining about? |
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alstorer
Really should get out more Joined: 02 Aug 07 Location: Cambridge Online Status: Offline Posts: 2899 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 12 Jan 12 at 10:42pm |
Clearly handicap racing is so pointless that no-one has entered the next big event. Oh wait, there's likely to be 80+ for the Starcross Streamer and the 150-limit has been hit for the Steve Nicholson more than two-week out.
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Al |
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maxibuddah
Really should get out more Joined: 06 Mar 09 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 1760 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 12 Jan 12 at 10:58pm |
It is interesting to see that Starcross are using the SJ PY's as they seem to agree with their findings over many events. Considering that all SJ events are sailing inland on non-tidal water, and Starcross is extremely tidal at times, I surprised that the PY's are that similar. I know that you are affected more by the tide as a slower boat and accordingly Hayling give PY's taking the tide into account. Amazing this PY system, never fails to amuse/confuse everyone, but at the same time seems to work relatively well considering all the variables, and is even better if clubs adjust them to suit their water. I think that everyone that is involved in creating the PY system, whether it be the PYAG or the SJ bods deserve a pat on the back rather than a sl*gging off for doing a near damn impossible job.
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Everything I say is my opinion, honest
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rogue
Really should get out more Joined: 04 Dec 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 978 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 12 Jan 12 at 11:01pm |
Mark E is a starcross bloke isn't he? Might explain the SJ implementation... Which is good BTW before I get accused of any cynicism!
Another fine post MaxiB... On form tonight sir! Edited by rogue - 12 Jan 12 at 11:02pm |
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marke
Far too distracted from work Joined: 16 Jun 08 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 211 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 12:54am |
MaxB
Yep surprised me as well - but the numbers don't lie (or perhaps just a little bit !). I ran 2 years of our club races using an implementation of the YR2 algorithm - and then applied a CSF normalising adjustment remarkably similar to the scheme Jim was alluding too with his graphs. We had the same objective as the SJ - the best sailors should win when the wind/course conditions are suitable for their boat - we expect the wind/course variation to even out over a season. For the fleets where we have enough data for the results to be significant - there was a remarkable match with the SJ; mostly within +/5 and all with +/-10. I think there may be a couple of explanations: - we try to race mostly at the top of the tide so often the tidal effects are small for most of the race - being an estuary the slower boats aren't always hampered as you might expect by the tide as they can short tack and gybe up a shore while the faster boats are out in the tide. Quite often an RS200 can keep with the B14s/RS800s upwind in light weather by short tacking. Over a long series I think the swings and roundabouts even themselves out - and we still like everywhere else have the effect of every boat having its day. The Sailing Committee decided to use the SJ numbers for the Steamer for consistency with the other big handicap events - and to be honest we didn't think the RYA numbers were working to give an equal chance to good sailors over the 20+ years it has been held. I should say that I had nothing to do with the work the SJ folks did, but I heard about the Great lakes activity and they were kind enough to give me an insight into the data they were using. We have also adjusted our numbers for local club racing. We haven't used the SJ numbers directly for every class - the PY sub-committee (yes we now have one!) decided on a scheme that uses a number halfway between our calculated numbers and the SJ ones, with some further alterations where either our data or the SJ data was not sufficient. Like the SJ its early days yet - only three races run under the new scheme - but like the SJ it looks promising with a far wider range of classes appearing in the top third of the fleet. A laser even won a trophy event - albeit in conditions that suited the laser - but I can't remember that happening before in 10 years and we have some good laser sailors. The plan is to try and review our adjustments every 6 months. I am currently trying to modify our race management software so that it can switch between RYA, local and personal handicaps as required. We also provide the club members with an online tool to estimate their personal or class PY using a database of results that is updated automatically as each race finishes. I know that some crews review their average 'achieved' PY after each series to see what the trend is - for instance I can see that I sailed significantly better across the Spring and Summer series than the Autumn series - there must be a temperature effect I haven't taken into account :-). A few more tweaks to make and the system will also automatically upload each series when it completes to the new PY 2012 system. regards Mark Edited by marke - 13 Jan 12 at 1:02am |
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maxibuddah
Really should get out more Joined: 06 Mar 09 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 1760 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 7:21am |
James...it makes a change for me, Marke, confused the hell out of me in your first paragraph but it sounded food and thorough, look forward to your implementation of the PY system on sunday
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Everything I say is my opinion, honest
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Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 11:12am |
quote Marke:
Over a long series I think the swings and roundabouts even themselves out - and we still like everywhere else have the effect of every boat having its day.
Exactly, On one race like the BM (or whatever) the PY system isn't going to work very well, it never will. IMO the kerfuffle, hyperbole and aspersions cast in this thread have been way ott, given the situation I think some "have protested too much" . I would treat the BM and all as a fun day out and be grateful that the likes of Mark, Bas, Chris et al are doing their best to sort out a system that works reasonably well for my club series. Edited by GK.LaserII - 13 Jan 12 at 11:14am |
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rb_stretch
Really should get out more Joined: 23 Aug 10 Online Status: Offline Posts: 742 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 7:45pm |
From what I remember of JimC's graphs the Laser has a much narrower deviation than other classes, so setting PY for the winners means the whole laser fleet moves up the rankings. To me PY is for the average person for club racing, because if you were seriously into winning you would be doing class events. Since the Laser is by far the biggest class in the country, you really haven't got an excuse to not be class racing in one. Certainly in our club Lasers have their own fleet ranking in handicap racing and are not included in the main handicap results.
So IMO to base PY references on the winners will do more damage to the PY system than anything else..... |
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JimC
Really should get out more Joined: 17 May 04 Location: United Kingdom Online Status: Offline Posts: 6648 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 8:12pm |
Even more complicated than that! Our Laser fleet, compared to our RS200s and Solos, has a greater deviation, but also much more skew in the deviation curve. Effectively that means that very best Lasers (and some of ours are top ten in masters worlds standard) are less far ahead of the average sailor than the best Solos and 200s, but also that the those of "still learning" group who have the greatest potential for improvement are rather further behind the average than in the other classes. If (and that's a very big IF) that picture is true of Lasers nationally, it means if you set a handicap for the best 25% it will be fair for them, generous for the middle 25% and harsh on the lowest 25%. If you set a handicap for the middle 25% it will be harsh on the top 25% and very harsh on the lowest 25%. If you set a handicap for the lowest 25% then it would be generous for the leading 25% and *very* generous for the middle 25%. |
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andy101
Posting king Joined: 11 Jan 11 Online Status: Offline Posts: 176 |
Post Options Quote Reply Posted: 13 Jan 12 at 9:39pm |
Either way 1082 isn't quite enough!-neither will 1084 be in 2012! The middle of the fleet are generally in poorer boats (as with most classes) so setting the handicap for the top of the fleet (if it does have the effect) is not really a bad thing imo - the back of the fleet either don't really care or have the greatest scope for improvement/learning curve so hopefully will move to middle/front quite quickly meaning they are not really the basis for setting a py on in any case.
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