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Reforming the Portsmouth Yardstick System

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Peaky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Peaky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 21 at 3:35pm
I ran the race results from an old club race using probabilistic PYs. Itís not so easy to format posts on this forum but here goes:
The handicaps used:


The results:


Tablulated:


Edited by Peaky - 16 Apr 21 at 3:35pm
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Peaky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Peaky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 7:45am
An actual, practical, suggestion with a worked example seems to have killed the conversation!
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davidyacht View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote davidyacht Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 7:46am
I think that I would need to understand it in order to comment 
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Rupert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Rupert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 8:11am
Sorry, been working at the sailing club - but that's on a different thread...

Always liked this idea, but it took me a while since you first suggested it to get my head round the concept, and I'm not sure most club sailors would get past "What on earth?"
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Peaky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Peaky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 8:42am
Itís quite straight forward in practise. In addition to the PY each class has a second number, standard deviation, which represents the uncertainty in the PY number. As discussed ad nauseum that uncertainty arises due to low number of returns and the wind, tide and course on the day. The upshot is that no one knows for certain what the PY of the Finn should be relative that the Vareo. So with this method the race results get calculated across a range of PY for each class, and the end result is a likelihood of where you came.
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Old bloke View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Old bloke Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 1:45pm
Looking at this on my phone, which is not ideal. Unless I am being v stupid. Can you post the results from the usual method to compare
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Peaky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Peaky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 21 at 3:35pm
The corrected time and rank columns are the results using the usual method. The points column is the new bit, so the winning Finn scores 1.5 points because it didnít win by much and might actually have been second. Similarly 7th, 8th and 9th are only separated by 17 seconds on traditional handicap, which is almost a dead heat given any uncertainty in the yardsticks to use, so score 7.7, 7.8 and 8.3 respectively.
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