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Sussex Lad View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:17pm
Originally posted by Paramedic

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.

Please explain, I may have missed your point.

Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.

Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:33pm
Originally posted by A2Z


I’m not sure this is quite right. For starters everyone dies eventually, so the claim “they were going to die anyway” is perhaps better phrased as “they probably only had a few years life expectancy”. But even that isn’t true. What we know for sure is that somewhere between 50% and 80% more people are dieing than would normally be expected. It is reasonable to assume this is either directly or indirectly because of Coronavirus.

A doctor (possibly virologist) was on R4 one morning a couple of weeks ago and said words to the effect of 90% of those who were dying had at 6-12 months to live at best. He said that what the NHS did not have the capacity for was for all these people to become morbidly ill and die at the same time.

Not wishing to sound unfeeling, morbid or whatever but it will be quite interesting to see if the overall death rate drops after all this is over.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:37pm
Originally posted by Sussex Lad

 
Please explain, I may have missed your point.

Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.

Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.



 

COVID-19 is a notifiable disease. 

So when someone dies while ill with COVID-19 it is extremely likely be recorded as COVID-19 on their death certificate whether they died of COVID-19, were also seriously ill with something else, or even fell down the stairs.

I agree that over counting is more likely to happen now they are including all settings.

We wont ever know the full figures, because we will never truly know exactly how many people have had it.


Edited by Paramedic - 27 Apr 20 at 3:39pm
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fab100 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote fab100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 3:45pm
Originally posted by iGRF

Originally posted by fab100

who do I wave my credit card at?]


Buy a GP14, they're the next best thing to being invisible..

I am not that desperate
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Post Options Post Options   Quote 423zero Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:09pm
They said the Spanish flu had died out after its first wave was interrupted by the summer, then came back in the autumn, far worse.
Robert
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NicolaJayne View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote NicolaJayne Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:15pm
Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Originally posted by Paramedic

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.

Please explain, I may have missed your point.

Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.

Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.

 


you have missed the point  

1.  the weekly ONS  figures do include community deaths (including in care homes)  where  Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate 

2.  there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something 

to die  OF Covid-19   you;d be looking at the people who have the  Covid related  can't ventilate  syndrome  and the associated  viral  sepsis 

to  split  the Of / with  thing 

consider  type I diabetes 

 you can die 'of'  it - you get DKA  and  you die because of the  acidotic  state 

you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car  have a hypo  and  crash into a  bridge parapet  ...  if you  weren't diabetic you probably wouldn't have had the crash  - so being diabetic  contributed  to it  but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into the concrete parapet at 70 mph 

so how does this  translate  to Covid-19 

 consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail ,  especially a nursing home bed - generally  these individuals  especially in 'general' beds rather than  Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency  on admission of months to  a few years...   

 their physiological reserve is much diminished  i.e it  doesn't take much to tip them from their  usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill 
 






Edited by NicolaJayne - 27 Apr 20 at 6:32pm
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A2Z View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote A2Z Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:27pm
Nonetheless if 10k a week usually die and now 18k are, it is reasonable to assume the majority of the extra 8k are dieing of Covid19. That’s about 15 Grenfell Towers worth of Covid victims every day, whilst in lockdown.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Paramedic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 4:45pm
Originally posted by 423zero

They said the Spanish flu had died out after its first wave was interrupted by the summer, then came back in the autumn, far worse.

You'd like to think we've come on a bit in 100 years, but I dont disagree that come this winter we will find ourselves subject to similar restrictions. If its the right thing to do, you wont find me complaining :)
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sussex Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 5:07pm
Originally posted by NicolaJayne

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Originally posted by Paramedic

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.

Please explain, I may have missed your point.

Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.

Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.

 


you have missed the point  

1.  the weekly ONS  figures do include community deaths ( in care homes)  where  Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate 

2.  there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something 

to die  OF Covid-19   you;d be looking at the people who have the  Covid related  can't ventilate  syndrome  and the associated  viral  sepsis 

to  split  the Of / with  thing 

consider  type I diabetes 

 you can die 'of'  it - you get DKA  and  you die because of the  acidotic  state 

you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car  have a hypo  and  crash into a  bridge parapet  ...  if you  weren't diabeitic you probably wouldn;t have had the crash  - so being diabetic  contributed  to it  but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into  concrete parapet at 70 mph 

so how does this  translate  to Covid-19 

 consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail ,  especially a nursing home bed - generally  these individuals  especially in 'general' beds rather than  Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency  on admission of months to  a few years...   

 their physiological reserve is much diminished  i.e it  doesn't take much to tip them from their  usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill 
 






Thanks for that Nicola.
 Professional I take it?









Edited by Sussex Lad - 27 Apr 20 at 5:11pm
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zeon View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote zeon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Apr 20 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Originally posted by NicolaJayne

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Originally posted by Paramedic

Originally posted by Sussex Lad

Some have been mentioning figures. One things for sure, the numbers being mentioned media are hopelessly inaccurate........Nobody knows who's had it who's got it and who's died of it

I know we are all becoming armchair analysts, but I think we can be reasonably sure of how many people have died with COVID-19.

Please explain, I may have missed your point.

Many people in care homes with it were not counted, some are being included now. Many have died in the community, again not counted.

Not usually a betting man but I'd bet the true figures are never known........of course we'll never know one way or the other.

 


you have missed the point  

1.  the weekly ONS  figures do include community deaths ( in care homes)  where  Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate 

2.  there is a difference between dying OF something and dying with Something 

to die  OF Covid-19   you;d be looking at the people who have the  Covid related  can't ventilate  syndrome  and the associated  viral  sepsis 

to  split  the Of / with  thing 

consider  type I diabetes 

 you can die 'of'  it - you get DKA  and  you die because of the  acidotic  state 

you can die with it - say you are driving along in your car  have a hypo  and  crash into a  bridge parapet  ...  if you  weren't diabeitic you probably wouldn;t have had the crash  - so being diabetic  contributed  to it  but you died of the massive internal injuries from piling into  concrete parapet at 70 mph 

so how does this  translate  to Covid-19 

 consider that to get a care home bed you have to be pretty frail ,  especially a nursing home bed - generally  these individuals  especially in 'general' beds rather than  Mental health / dementia beds have a life expectency  on admission of months to  a few years...   

 their physiological reserve is much diminished  i.e it  doesn't take much to tip them from their  usual day to day level to being profoundly and life threateningly ill 
 






Thanks for that Nicola.
 Professional I take it?











+1 with the thanks , Nicola 
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