My rule of thumb has always been to look at conditions in which boat (or crew) weight could not be an issue. If you are almost always at the top in those conditions (ie howling beats if you're heavy, marginal planing if you're light, shifty stuff etc) then you are obviously sailing well some times and therefore any specific problem areas could be a boat problem. Similarly, if you are very consistently dropping back against boats each side in most conditions, it could be a boat problem.
If, on the other hand, you're always really slow (ie even when it's really fluky or really heavy) and/or inconsistent (ie losing 6 boats in a shift, then hanging in for two legs and losing another 5 boats at a mark) it's not the boat that's the problem - it's you. If you are light, but cannot roll tack really well and win on a marginal planing day, then it's not boat weight - it's you. If you are heavy and you cannot win on a strong day and capsize on the gybe, it's you. And if you cannot regularly (if not always) win in a club fleet where the top sailors are not in with a chance at national/world level and never have been, then it may well also be you.
I'd never normally blame the boat for a general performance issue, unless you have good evidence that it's the boat - say, for example, you had previously been on the podium in championships in that class. However you have identified a specific issue that occurs in conditions when a specific factor could logically be the problem. So (IMHO, speaking as someone who sails old Lasers in titles) it seems that you may well be on the right track.
I sail so many classes that, for economy, I tend to sail old gear (and I get too sentimental to sell stuff and use the cash for newer kit) but it can still get you into the chocolates in 40 boat fleets, at least some of the time. To me, the key is that when you can do well some times but specifically identify a problem area that could logically be closely linked to a potential boat problem, you may be on the right track. On the other hand, those people who say "I never get better than 25th but it's because my sail is two regattas old" are just blaming their tools.
As noted, since you have identified a specific problem and admit it may not be the boat, it seems that you are not falling into the trap of blaming your gear, therefore IMHO it could be the gear.
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