The Case for a VPP style handicap system.
Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=11272
Printed Date: 14 Jul 25 at 2:51pm Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: The Case for a VPP style handicap system.
Posted By: iGRF
Subject: The Case for a VPP style handicap system.
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 10:37am
So for those who (like me until very recently)have no idea what a VPP system is, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_prediction_program" rel="nofollow - I found this on wiki I'd been basing my thoughts on the http://www.schrs.com" rel="nofollow - SCHRS method for Cats the general idea being that a fixed formula be used as an initial base for boats to be rated against as a performance guide.
My views on the current system is that however good it currently is and despite the hard work the boys in the back room do, it can never be all things to all people, now I also understand a pure measurement system cannot necessarily take into account the micro adjustments that can occur with certain development classes, but it can deliver on adjustments like weight, sail size, mast measurement and material and most important of all, it can put stability at the heart of the system if nothing materially alters in a boat design.
If we take the case of the Solo, Streaker or Phantom, there were physical changes in weight, construction methods and possibly even hull form (this I do not know but surmise) either way, all points that could be mathematically calculated and a variation year on year spat out of a system.
The benefit? Owners of older boats retain their original rating and only new boats get the faster (or slower) rating
The benefit for reference by the Yardstick committee would be a fixed reference point, even the original system had the Island One Design as the null point of 100 about which to pivot other craft. This to my mind is the biggest failing that has resulted from the current system which appears to revolve about itself being pretty much statistically driven and many craft get lost (My own EPS case to point)or fail to register for years (My other boat, the Alto is an example of this). The 505 another example of a boat that has changed performance but with lack of activity in the inland water arenas of mass statistic generation has remained static.
So, yes designers could vary their boats if they got to know the formala and how it worked, but hell who cares if a faster boat results, either change the formula to accomodate whatever miracle has resulted, or let things ride, there would at least be a scientific explanation rather than the smoke, mirrors and doubt that exists at present.
Dinghies have a much broader range of performance than displacement yachts imv and the weather, planing and none planing conditions, foiling and none foiling, make the task impossible anyway, but if the boat is designed to foil then the formula records at that point, similarly if the boat is a planer then the optimum performance is the point at which the craft would be rated.
Beyond that what the Yardstick system makes of it would be no better no worse than the state of affairs we currently enjoy, but at least if we had a scratch guide rating to start with, there could at least be a point of solid argument based in fact upon which to build.
Is my thinking.
So flame away and tear it to pieces..
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Replies:
Posted By: laser193713
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 10:54am
Take a look at the VPRS rating system used on keelboats. I think Poole are the main adopters so far but it seems to provide good racing. I have raced under it once and the results seemed fair, but we won so I would say that
|
Posted By: hobbiteater
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 10:58am
from other thread - why cant you add wind as a factor? its not as if its hard to measure...
|
Posted By: maxibuddah
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 11:02am
But then the wind varies during a race especially evening racing when it often falls away
------------- Everything I say is my opinion, honest
|
Posted By: hobbiteater
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 11:08am
then take readings at various points or automate the measurement to get a total wind flux over the length of the race and use that
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 12:52pm
If you add wind then it seems perverse not to include wave height and length and tidal strength and direction which can be just as important...
Take the two boats I've sailed most, the Cherub and the Canoe. The Cherub has a downwind vmg something like 3 times that of the upwind at a guess, whilst in the Canoe they are fairly similar. So if its wind against tide the Canoe is stuck forever on long runs, whilst the Cherub romps away with short beats - at least until the waves get too extreme - whilst if its wind with tide the canoe zips up the beat in no time and is pushed down the run before the Cherub has time to get back again.
|
Posted By: hobbiteater
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 12:56pm
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 1:22pm
Originally posted by JimC
If you add wind then it seems perverse not to include wave height and length and tidal strength and direction which can be just as important...
Take the two boats I've sailed most, the Cherub and the Canoe. The Cherub has a downwind vmg something like 3 times that of the upwind at a guess, whilst in the Canoe they are fairly similar. So if its wind against tide the Canoe is stuck forever on long runs, whilst the Cherub romps away with short beats - at least until the waves get too extreme - whilst if its wind with tide the canoe zips up the beat in no time and is pushed down the run before the Cherub has time to get back again. |
In this situation, the chances of a VPP managing to get fair racing between 2 such extreme hull shapes is pretty much zero, even with wind, waves and tide taken, in some magical way, into account. Even real life data, as per the PY system, struggles, and would even if both boats were as popular as a Laser. Theory would be a joke.
I can see a VPP working for a narrow band of hull shapes designed specially for it, but not for the multitude of boats we have out there, even if someone had the time, expertise and money to measure every class, every variant of a class, every modified variant of a class ad-infinitum.
But if it will only work for a narrow band of shapes, why not just set up a box rule and let people get on with it?
------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 1:33pm
What I had in mind, was a device, wether it were a website or a download, that you put your own measurements into, it then spits out your rating, it could be a certificate, it would quite literally be different for every boat that input it's details, so given two solos identical but for weight, they'd get a different rating.
In a perfect world, you could then apply for a personal handicap based on height, weight, experience even.
Then like golf you race off your own adjusted handicap to start with and it only varies according to your experience/results or your equipment if anything changes.
Then even One Design class racing would be fair(er).
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 1:46pm
Can we also measure hull stiffness ourselves? And do a swing test? And who has to measure each boat to check we haven't got it wrong or (whispers) lied?
Can we also get a dispensation for peeling paint slowing us down, or knackered old sails because we are too mean to buy new ones?
------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
|
Posted By: winging it
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 2:02pm
This would quite simply kill club racing. No race officers would want to take it on, and most sailors would think it too complicated. At the moment you can take a decent stab at how you're doing in a handicap race going on how far ahead/behind you are. That would not be so easy with this system and it would put off those who care about how they are doing.
------------- the same, but different...
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 2:53pm
Why so?
All you'd do when asked is declare your handicap as now. If you didn't have one you'd have to sail with what they give you. But why as paying customers should we be dictated to by event organisers? The onus should be on the helm and his craft to decide what handicap to use.
That old Solo might be 1156 the guy in the new one might be 1155 (because he's heavy if I sailed the new one I'd be 1154)
Except the handicap would be decided more by physical attributes than statistical bufferdom crossed with gerrymandering event organisation.
So in essence you apply to a website for a handicap, if that site were run by the RYA then so be it, but you dial in the craft, it's age, weight(if not actual then published), sail size and all the measurements required, plus your own size experience & measurements and it spits out your handicap. Hell if I were an online magazine publisher maybe I'd develop and promote it.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: 2547
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 3:40pm
What you want GRF is an app for your iPhone where by you photograph your boat and the app produces the appropriate PY .... shouldn't be too hard ...
|
Posted By: ChrisI
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 3:47pm
GRF - a VPP system would be a possible alternative model, but I don't think you should imagine for a moment - if it is a system that comes up with one handicap number for one boat in one place - that it will be any 'fairer' or 'more accurate' than the existing PY system implemented as suggested i.e. the overall PY number locally adjusted according to conditions.
The reason for this is the "one number" thing, and the impossibility of capturing relative movement in a large number of variables by using just one number. Can't do it.
A more "accurate" system, as I think you mean, would have to assign different handicaps to one boat in different conditions i.e. wind strengths at different times in the race, types of courses sailed, etc etc. Theoretically this could be done, but check out the history of the IMS system in yachts to find out what happens when you try to include lots of variables in the model, measure wind speeds etc etc. It seems to me that way lies madness. There certainly used to be reports of competitors having to wait hours after a race before anyone knew who had won.....
(and as for the "at least we'll have everything in the open" idea, not sure if you are aware that the largest and most successful worldwide design based measurement rule IRC is a secret rule?!!..... can imagine how much fun you would have with that in the People's Republic of Kent......)
If we want an easy to use relatively simple 'one number' handicap system, then I figure we have to subscribe to the "every dog will have its day" philosophy.... and just make sure that this particular dog gets out there on as many days as possible....
|
Posted By: winging it
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:08pm
Why should the paying customer be dictated to by the event organiser? Because nine times out of ten the event organiser will be an unpaid yet very skilled volunteer, aided and abetted by a support team of equally skilled yet unpaid volunteers, who will have given up many, many hours so we can all sail round a course they have done their best to make fair, using a results system they know isn't the best, and produce the results ultra fast at the end of play. Plus of course organise safety cover, parking, launching, entry, paperwork, galley etc. and despite their best, freely given efforts, there will still be some who are happy to sit back and complain.
Worst of all are those who sit back and complain from a distance, never actually bothering to get out and take part. Change should come from within Graeme, so get out and do some of the races, actually see what happens, talk to the organisers in person, get your points made that way, then maybe people that matter will take notice.
------------- the same, but different...
|
Posted By: Do Different
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:28pm
Really like some of your outside the box thinking Graham
BUT
On this one Nessa is dead on the money. 
|
Posted By: Do Different
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:34pm
Sorry, Graeme not Graham.
Really it is not an establishment conspiracy, or vested interests or the CIA or MI5. It is just the best compromise to let everyone have some sort of crack.
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:35pm
Wing Wang I've raced hundreds of races in dozens of venues over the years thanks and they were all in my opinion with very few exceptions well and fairly run, I have also been to a few dinghy events that were also well run, however, we/I pay for that privilege which if they didn't want me there they need not hold the event need they? Most of us (yes I count myself as one) who have organised events, do it for the fun of it, no other reason.
I find organisers that whine and groan about being put upon to be, to quote my favourite Guardian expression on the subject of whiners.
They come in two flavours - huffy and whiny - and it's hard to know which is worst. The huffy ones are self-important, narcissistic authoritarians in love with the sound of their own booming disapproval, while the whiny, sparrowlike ones are so annoying and sickly and ill-equipped for life on Earth you just want to smack them round the head until they stop crying and grow up. Combined, they're the very worst people on the planet - 20 times worse than child molesters you can pick which one you are.
As to the other points, the wind? It's the same for everybody, no need to take it into account, the courses as in the other thread they will be what they will and as we all know can often change mid race. Every dog should have its day, but at the moment that day is more likely artificially driven or purchased.
So the point of this is to determine an absolutely fair and equal for all system, not reliant on wether lots of folk by dint of them using a given boat, force that onto the rest of us or as in the case of my EPS and a few others I could think of (Supernova, Solution) get ignored.
I'm not sure how it could be done but I've got almost a fortnight off over Xmas in which to have an Excel fest to play around.
So the first question I would need answered, which boat do the panel think currently has the fairest yardstick?
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:49pm
Originally posted by iGRF
Wing Wang I've raced hundreds of races in dozens of venues over the years thanks and they were all in my opinion with very few exceptions well and fairly run, I have also been to a few dinghy events that were also well run, however, we/I pay for that privilege which if they didn't want me there they need not hold the event need they? Most of us (yes I count myself as one) who have organised events, do it for the fun of it, no other reason.
I find organisers that whine and groan about being put upon to be, to quote my favourite Guardian expression on the subject of whiners.
They come in two flavours - huffy and whiny - and it's hard to know which is worst. The huffy ones are self-important, narcissistic authoritarians in love with the sound of their own booming disapproval, while the whiny, sparrowlike ones are so annoying and sickly and ill-equipped for life on Earth you just want to smack them round the head until they stop crying and grow up. Combined, they're the very worst people on the planet - 20 times worse than child molesters you can pick which one you are.
As to the other points, the wind? It's the same for everybody, no need to take it into account, the courses as in the other thread they will be what they will and as we all know can often change mid race. Every dog should have its day, but at the moment that day is more likely artificially driven or purchased.
So the point of this is to determine an absolutely fair and equal for all system, not reliant on wether lots of folk by dint of them using a given boat, force that onto the rest of us or as in the case of my EPS and a few others I could think of (Supernova, Solution) get ignored.
I'm not sure how it could be done but I've got almost a fortnight off over Xmas in which to have an Excel fest to play around.
So the first question I would need answered, which boat do the panel think currently has the fairest yardstick?
|
Depends on where you are sailing, the breeze/sea conditions at the time, the size and configuration of the course and most importantly who is sailing :-)
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:50pm
Statistically speaking, the boat with the most PY returns should have the fairest handicap, but I suspect you are trying to get away from statistical rigour. Or something aspiring to it.
|
Posted By: hobbiteater
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 4:55pm
The whole point of a parameter based system is you dont need a yardstick...
Say the system is sail area over waterline, then the number would be watever it is, no need to normalise. Eg laser in above system is around 2, why multiply by 500 to get a yardstick 1000. Just use 2.
|
Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:01pm
If you want level racing sail a one design. If is the proliferation of too many new classes that has ruined many clubs, and also the basic incompatibility of assymetrics with non assymetrics. PY is as good as anything for Mickey Mouse racing. What really makes things worse is when any attempt is made to add personal handicap racing with PY's, if you are no good, practice some more.
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:03pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
Statistically speaking, the boat with the most PY returns should have the fairest handicap, but I suspect you are trying to get away from statistical rigour. Or something aspiring to it. |
Looking for a base line to work from.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:07pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
the boat with the most PY returns should have the fairest handicap, |
The Laser.
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by davidyacht
If you want level racing sail a one design. If is the proliferation of too many new classes that has ruined many clubs, and also the basic incompatibility of assymetrics with non assymetrics. PY is as good as anything for Mickey Mouse racing. What really makes things worse is when any attempt is made to add personal handicap racing with PY's, if you are no good, practice some more.
|
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:13pm
Originally posted by JimC
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
the boat with the most PY returns should have the fairest handicap, |
The Laser. |
The Laser is wrong
On so many levels
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:14pm
Originally posted by JimC
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
the boat with the most PY returns should have the fairest handicap, |
The Laser. |
Until recently, ambiguities of PY aside, this would infer that most other classes had less fair handicap than the laser (in account of the fact that, say, Robert Scheidt could never win the Bloody Mary regardless of the conditions (assuming half decent sailors in the other classes turned up, which they always do. )
|
Posted By: Do Different
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 5:30pm
Seems to me there is no case for a VPP handicap system, for the simple reason that given so many variables outside of the boats themselves mixed fleet dinghy racing can never be levelled totally evenly whatever system you employ.
At Club level anyway. The funny thing is though, given enough time from what I've seen the best people always come out on top wether they are using their pimped to the gunwales racing special or borrowing the club hack of a GP14.
|
Posted By: G.R.F.
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 7:16pm
If the Bloody Mary were held at Hythe, Robert Scheidt would absolutely kill it given a bit of breeze and waves.
As to no case for it, since it's never been tried before, that's a pretty dogmatic position to take.
------------- https://www.ease-distribution.com/" rel="nofollow - https://www.ease-distribution.com/
|
Posted By: Presuming Ed
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 7:25pm
What do you mean by a VPP handicap system?
One where, like IMS in it's early iterations, meant that the RC decided who won, results took an age to calculate, and you never knew how you were doing on the racecourse? One that resulted in the event being termed the "comedy cup"? To the extent that they gave up on the tide adjusted, wind adjusted scoring system. Of course, TOT takes the conditions into some degree of account anyway.
Or has nobody mentioned the difficulty of trying to build a VPP for planing boats (whatever planing is...)
Measurement handicap or rating systems and dinghies don't mix.
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 9:57pm
Originally posted by G.R.F.
If the Bloody Mary were held at Hythe, Robert Scheidt would absolutely kill it given a bit of breeze and waves.As to no case for it, since it's never been tried before, that's a pretty dogmatic position to take. |
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball.
|
Posted By: getafix
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 10:51pm
if this type of system led to a really interesting new development 'box' class then great, but I fear it will just be another sudo-SMOD, like the Merlins have become, because pure development classes appeal to so few of us (in reality) as shown by the relatively small numbers actually sailing them; i14, Moths, Cherubs, even though they are, IMO, absolutely fab boats. When very few 'bite' costs stay high and numbers stay low.
Of course, if your box rule has a price limit, then perhaps we're talking about something with the power to really change.
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 11:19pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball. |
Dunno I'd want to bet on that... I was looking at the timings from Weymouth earlier today, and Slingsby et al were averaging 7% (= 70 points of PY) faster than the tail of the pack, and that tail was including Canadian, US, Belgian from time to time amongst others, and hard to imagine those guys aren't the standard of top of amateur fleet in the UK.
On PY numbers a mid fleet Fireball would be expected to be close to Laser speed anyway if you reckon the normal 20% fleet spread...
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 20 Dec 13 at 11:38pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball. |
Not a snowballs chance in hell, Furball? At Hythe? If one managed to get off the beach and if it made the first mark, downhill? In our short period chop? Nosey boats like that, no, sorry no Furball ever cut it that i can remember, kids puddle boat, don't ever take one on proper sea.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Dougaldog
Date Posted: 21 Dec 13 at 11:48am
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball.
"In our short period chop? Nosey boats like that, no, sorry no Furball ever cut it that i can remember, kids puddle boat, don't ever take one on proper sea."
Dan.... it must be the effects of global warming or the proximity of France that has changed things so much, but I don't recall sailing at Hythe leaving me awake at night in a cold sweat of fear. We used to race Contenders there on a regular basis (this was back in the days of the late great Jim Maconockie and his big mate Owen) and they're pretty pointy with a liking for 'going down the mine', but it was never a big problem. Ditto in Scorpions, used to be a top venue for them at one time, if gruff can't handle the Merlins then he'd really get his ass wupped by any half decent Scorpion. Move just around the corner to Downs SC where we sailed Hornets extensively, now there was a great boat for sailing the short chop. Go the other way and you had 505s at Hastings (indeed, the 'Harolds Helmet' trophy always brought out a very big fleet and I don't recall us struggling there either! True launching and getting back could be a bit buttock clenching but so can lots of places! But as for thinking that a laser, even one sailed by a truly great sailor, would compete against a 'fleet competitive' Fireball, forget it! We shared an event with them once and they loved it...not to mention them going very quick on the downwind legs!
However, (much as one hates to admit it) GRF is right to question the existing PY scheme as there is plenty of evidence that it has failed to keep up with developments elsewhere - in not only what we sail but how we sail. If GRF has done anything, he has (more than most of his detractors)correctly identified some of the ailments affecting the sport though I'm not sure if his solution is correct - but at least he is right to raise the debate. You do not have to look far to see signs that once handicap events are really made 'worthwhile' that people will work to maximise their chances and yes, this can be done 'legally' without incurring any PY change under the current system. So, room for a change in thinking...maybe!
I can well recall some of the howls of protest when the original PY system changed for the first time from the old 2 and 3 digit range (when a Firefly was 100 and a Laser 95) but just because it had been done like that since day 1 is not reason for there not to be any consideration of a 'better' way.
And as to all those who bitch about class proliferation, I've got the documentation from your own fleet (the 14s) moaning long and hard about the launch of the Merlin class in 1946, suggesting that it should be somehow stopped as being bad for the sport! Ca plus ca change!!!
See you at the club in 2014!
Happy Xmas
D
------------- Dougal H
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 21 Dec 13 at 1:27pm
The Scorpion and Contender both have a place at Hythe, we had many a Nationals for the Scorpion fleet and Contenders race very competitively to this day, shame they don't chuck those weights out and get with the programme.
Fireballs however have never featured there to my recollection, maybe they are round the corner at Downs where they enjoy a different sea pattern for most of the time.
But either way we digress here and it doesn't get me any further with my formula attempts any more than the existing system, not having a base point upon which to build, even the Contender which to my knowledge hasn't changed got fiddled with just recently changing it's relationship with the Laser even further, the logic of which is beyond me given that both boats have remained similar for so long.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: 2547
Date Posted: 21 Dec 13 at 1:43pm
Originally posted by iGRF
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball. |
Not a snowballs chance in hell, Furball? At Hythe? If one managed to get off the beach and if it made the first mark, downhill? In our short period chop? Nosey boats like that, no, sorry no Furball ever cut it that i can remember, kids puddle boat, don't ever take one on proper sea.  |
What garbage. The Fireball is one of the best rough weather dinghies ever made. I don't think I have ever seen one go down the mine.
|
Posted By: Dougaldog
Date Posted: 21 Dec 13 at 1:46pm
The last thing I'd want to do GRF is divert you away from your stated objective - which is a goal that I really believe is worth pursuing! If there was something that could be done to help you along your way then I'd be doing it!
The trouble is, if you start to come up with something that even looked like it might work, then the powers of 'vested interest' would quickly close ranks just to preserve the status quo. Hate to tell you but it was 'ever thus'!
D
------------- Dougal H
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 21 Dec 13 at 2:43pm
Originally posted by Dougaldog
The last thing I'd want to do GRF is divert you away from your stated objective - which is a goal that I really believe is worth pursuing! If there was something that could be done to help you along your way then I'd be doing it!
The trouble is, if you start to come up with something that even looked like it might work, then the powers of 'vested interest' would quickly close ranks just to preserve the status quo. Hate to tell you but it was 'ever thus'!
D |
True, but we're living in ever changing times and the internet not only brings about 'Arab Springs' it is capable of any number of revolutions, should there be a popular requirement for such, so, say in the remote likelihood of a better system coming from this, which we all agree is extremely unlikely, but never the less not reason to not try, then it should be offered to those with the ability to apply it or include it within their own system.
The End Goal here is just something better for all of us and only if it were denied unreasonably, then it could easily be set up in the cloud for anyone to adopt if they felt it to be a more preferable system and clubs make their own decision.
But either way pointless discussing until something that works a bit better is contrived and by pure chance one of the daughters of darkness has just walked in with the new boyfriend, a software engineer, specialist in developing algorithms for bank trading, guess what he's going to be looking at over the weekend.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 22 Dec 13 at 2:45pm
Originally posted by JimC
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
With breeze and waves at hythe, Bob Scheidt would get bossed by a mid nationals fleet fireball. |
Dunno I'd want to bet on that... I was looking at the timings from Weymouth earlier today, and Slingsby et al were averaging 7% (= 70 points of PY) faster than the tail of the pack, and that tail was including Canadian, US, Belgian from time to time amongst others, and hard to imagine those guys aren't the standard of top of amateur fleet in the UK.
On PY numbers a mid fleet Fireball would be expected to be close to Laser speed anyway if you reckon the normal 20% fleet spread... |
7% is about 4 mins per hour. Which is a lot even behind the slingsbys of this world. The Olympics is funny because the tail end of the fleet has an element of "Eric the eel" so nowhere near the depth of the laser worlds.
I would venture that at the worlds, 2 fleets of 70 boats, that 75% of the fleet finished within 2 mins of the leader unless you have either light airs and big holes, or really strong breeze and capsizes. I reckon that the top 5 or 10 guys nationally in lasers would finish between 1and 2 mins behind Slingsby.
I was maybe a bit glib about the mid fleet nationals sailor - maybe assumed a bit more strength in depth.
But I stand by my assertion that a capable fireball crew would ruin Scheidt/Slingsby on handicap in above 15 kts regardless of seastate. Unless on a tiny pond.
|
Posted By: sandgrounder
Date Posted: 22 Dec 13 at 4:12pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
But I stand by my assertion that a capable fireball crew would ruin Scheidt/Slingsby on handicap in above 15 kts regardless of seastate. Unless on a tiny pond.
|
That's absolutely the case, and similarly a well sailed Lightning or Solo would destroy Scheidt or Slingsby in light airs on the tiny pond.
I wonder when either of them last sailed in a handicap race......
|
Posted By: sandgrounder
Date Posted: 22 Dec 13 at 4:25pm
Originally posted by iGRF
True, but we're living in ever changing times and the internet not only brings about 'Arab Springs' it is capable of any number of revolutions......
|
That's not a particularly helpful analogy. In case you hadn't noticed all the 'Arab Springs', Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, etc., failed dismally with the old 'deep state' regimes firmly entrenched. Additionally all the real dictatorships of the Gulf states have consolidated their positions of strength.
In any case, handicap racing isn't important enough in the grand scheme to warrant major change to the current system.
|
Posted By: yellowwelly
Date Posted: 22 Dec 13 at 4:32pm
There are three changes we can all make if we find PY racing unsatisfactory:
1) change the management in the club. Get involved, submit results to the RYA, adjust numbers where needed.
2) change your club to one that does the above (we probably need less clubs anyway)
3) choose class racing only
VPP style handicap… I've no doubt it could be done, I've also no doubt that the change would generally be disastrous given the conservative nature of the sport. And finally, I've also no doubt that it will still prove utterly unsatisfying for some with all sorts of accusations of banditry and building boats to 'cheat the system'.
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 22 Dec 13 at 5:04pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
The Olympics is funny because the tail end of the fleet has an element of "Eric the eel" so nowhere near the depth of the laser worlds. |
That was the tail end of the pack Dan, 5 places up from the back, not the tail end of the fleet. I picked a point at which there was consistently only seconds between boats, and where I was seeing competitors from what I'd regard as major sailing nations. The games is one of the few events where times are published for one design classes, but I've always felt, when I've looked at times, that boats are more spread out than we think they are.
|
Posted By: Chris 249
Date Posted: 23 Dec 13 at 2:40am
Even the well-resourced Offshore Racing Council's attempt to create a VPP started with some very nice boats but ended up creating ones like this.
Warning; NSFW (Now Showing Fearsome Waceboats).
Yes, that is a "ski jump" transom on Siemens, a Frers IMS boat. It may have had a wooden keel, too.
I have also been told by designers that the use of a VPP effectively kills amateur designs. It becomes quite hard to predict how changes to the design will effect the rating. One ends up with an arms race where one has to have a better (ie more expensive) VPP than the VPP used by the rule.
And of course it's not as simple as working out how fast a boat will go in a particular breeze; acceleration, surfing, motion through chop etc all count a lot towards performance.
A lot of VPPs would show little difference between a 1973 Phantom and a 2013 one, but there is a big difference in speed (according to this forum) even if the old boat is immaculate. And you could end up encouraging rather regressive designs such as hull bumps or sheerlines designed to make the boat appear narrower at deck level and therefore slower.
There's just no way to design the perfect system. Like those who demand the perfect boat, the search for perfection could actually be harming the sport a lot more than it assists it.
|
Posted By: Dougaldog
Date Posted: 23 Dec 13 at 10:09am
Chris....
I grew up in the years of IoR. I remember very well (indeed, may still have it in the archive somewhere) the series Rob Humphries wrote for Y&Y titled 'HighAppleBoots' (for High Tension, Golden Apple and Gumboots, three of the definitive IoR boats of the day). In the articles Rob 'deconstructed' what the designers had done, then put the best of the factors back into his own design which became, if I recall correctly, the HOD35 - which is still a quick boat today! Thinking back to the series, the message was clear. You could design a quick boat, or a boat with a beneficial rating/handicap but building a quick boat that had a good rating was the nirvana that designers sought
Here in the UK the first designer to really introduce any real mathematic discipline into dinghy hull design was Rob Inglis, who came up with the 'Bad Company' design - a superb boat for the lakes and inland waters yet one that failed to really score on the open waters found at Championship venues. Is this indicative that, as you correctly surmised, that perfection remains an illusive goal?
happy Christmas 'down under'
D
------------- Dougal H
|
Posted By: Presuming Ed
Date Posted: 23 Dec 13 at 10:52am
No such thing as perfect. A rockered hull that's good inland - lots of tacking - will have a top speed limit that shows up on longer legs at sea.
Is Graeme thinking about a "true VPP" rating system, like (IMS)ORCi/ORR (complicated and inaccurate, according to Jason Ker), or a rating algorithm system - like IOR,International Rule, IRC (assumed, as it's secret) etc.
Not really sure how either of those could deal with dinghies, where such a significant proportion of total displacement comes in mobile, carbon based form.
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 23 Dec 13 at 10:53am
Originally posted by Dougaldog
You could design a quick boat, or a boat with a beneficial rating/handicap |
The curse of all these rules has always been that it seems easier to design a boat that is slow, but not quite as slow as the rule thinks it is, than it is to design a boat that is quicker than the rule thinks it is. To my mind the reason the offshore rule makers have always failed in the long term is that they've never been clear* whether they want a development rule that encourages new boats and design innovation, or a "run what you brung" handicap rule which necessarily must discourage innovation.
Box rules are much simpler in that respect, but can get viciously expensive if the rate of obsolescence becomes unsustainable. There was a period at the end of the 19thC when they reckoned the competitive life of a new racer in some keelboat classes in the UK was around half a season.
*probably because the potential owners who create the demand for rules have never been able to agree on that either!
[arrghhh what am I doing extending this dumb thread??]
|
Posted By: Presuming Ed
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 8:35am
Originally posted by JimC
The curse of all these rules has always been that it seems easier to design a boat that is slow, but not quite as slow as the rule thinks it is, than it is to design a boat that is quicker than the rule thinks it is. |
Saying the same thing, IMHO. Main difficulty, AISI, is that the understanding of the basic sweet spot in terms of speed producing factors - length, beam, displacement, sail area is found relatively quickly. If you make a boat that's all around faster than the rule thinks it is, you've just got one iteration further down that road. But in a modern world where the designers' VPPs are much more sophisticated than the rule writers', that's actually a road that gets travelled pretty quickly. (The other option is a one-trick pony.)
So then you're left with the other stuff that the relevant rule measures, - the boat slowing stuff. And trying to get a handle on that, and working out what doesn't slow you down quite as much as the rule is where you can get a jump on your competitors.
Originally posted by JimC
To my mind the reason the offshore rule makers have always failed in the long term is that they've never been clear* whether they want a development rule that encourages new boats and design innovation, or a "run what you brung" handicap rule which necessarily must discourage innovation.
|
Not necessarily the case for IRC.
2 FUNDAMENTAL POLICY . . 2.2 The IRC concept protects the existing IRC fleet. 2.3 IRC encourages design innovation consistent with stability, rounded performance, seaworthiness and safety. 2.4 IRC discourages unnecessary expense at all levels. 2.5 The spirit of IRC requires that owners and designers shall not seek means of artificially reducing the rating of a boat, e.g. increasing performance without a corresponding increase in rating. . . . 2.8 Any exploitation of the inherent simplicity of the IRC Rule will be discouraged. The RORC Rating Office and UNCL therefore reserve the right to make adjustments or amendments to any part of IRC at any time in order to prevent undesirable or unforeseen lines of development. |
|
Posted By: JimC
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 8:48am
Originally posted by Presuming Ed
Not necessarily the case for IRC. |
Agreed, but I didn't think that was the place to mention it. IRC is a very different game since it is an empirical measurement rule aiming for simplicity and doesn't pretend to try and be all things to all. If anything does kill it it will be the lack of a proper grand prix development rule alongside it for those that wish to spend megabucks. As I'm sure you know one, IRM, was intended, but the boat owners didn't come, so the rule administrators are left treading a tricky path...
Originally posted by Presuming Ed
But in a modern world where the designers' VPPs are much more sophisticated than the rule writers', that's actually a road that gets travelled pretty quickly. |
Its always been the case though. You look at IOR, long before designer's VPPS, and there was all that stuff with stupid pinched in sterns, putting the engine in the front, bow down trim, tiny mainsails and huge overlapping jibs... Even the daggerboarders... None of these were performance features, or even made for boats that were better to sail, they just slowed the boat down less than the rating reckoned...
|
Posted By: laser193713
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 9:02am
Originally posted by Presuming Ed
Originally posted by JimC
The curse of all these rules has always been that it seems easier to design a boat that is slow, but not quite as slow as the rule thinks it is, than it is to design a boat that is quicker than the rule thinks it is. |
Saying the same thing, IMHO. Main difficulty, AISI, is that the understanding of the basic sweet spot in terms of speed producing factors - length, beam, displacement, sail area is found relatively quickly. If you make a boat that's all around faster than the rule thinks it is, you've just got one iteration further down that road. But in a modern world where the designers' VPPs are much more sophisticated than the rule writers', that's actually a road that gets travelled pretty quickly. (The other option is a one-trick pony.)
|
I think what Jim has sort of touched on is the fact that it is easier to sail a slow boat above its rating more of the time than it is a fast boat. Not anything to do with designing a faster boat. Purely and simply if you wipe out in a tp52 it is probably going to take longer to recover than if you wipe out on a 30 foot cruiser. Also, even if you take the same time to get it back on it's feet as the blokes in the 30 footer it will still cost you more time against your rating percentage wise. Therefore it is easier to sail a small, slow, boat to it's rating than it is a fast tippy one where you are likely to be losing time at every corner and probably on every wave compared to the "perfect" race.
On that point, perhaps it is impossible to sail a boat above it's rating, more, sail it closer to its rating than every other boat in the fleet more of the time!?
VPP for dinghies will not work, at least not in the way that GRF wants it to. There are simply too many variables. That's before you even begin to consider sailor skill! Factoring that in would be ultimately pointless anyway because if it actually worked everyone would finish at exactly the same time in every race, if they didn't then there would be a problem with the system which would cause outrage! 
|
Posted By: Daniel Holman
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 10:17am
[/QUOTE]
I think what Jim has sort of touched on is the fact that it is easier to sail a slow boat above its rating more of the time than it is a fast boat.
[/QUOTE] One thing that the PY can capture to one extent- at least for an average venue in a certain wind strength average sailors etc etc - in a stopped clock tells the correct time once a day kinda way.
A VPP based system could never capture this sort of effect without serious fudging.
BTW, pretty sure the wolfson unit has a dinghy VPP - why not have a chat with them about implementation and codifying every racing class in the UK Graeme?
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 1:55pm
Originally posted by Daniel Holman
One thing that the PY can capture to one extent- at least for an average venue in a certain wind strength average sailors etc etc - in a stopped clock tells the correct time once a day kinda way.A VPP based system could never capture this sort of effect without serious fudging.BTW, pretty sure the wolfson unit has a dinghy VPP - why not have a chat with them about implementation and codifying every racing class in the UK Graeme? |
Not such a bad idea, I'd like to know more about what factors their system employs, from what I've managed to garner so far, the traditional VPP's allow for heel and far more wetted surface than dinghies, so we need our own formula, like whatever it was that produced those V twin predictions. My thinking for that was rather than expect everyone to measure to that great a degree a certain bottom 'type' could be selected from a list.
like say Shallow parabolic rocker, type 1, type 2 etc. to add to the sail size, number, length, beam righting moment stuff.
Then once you have a solid base formula that the given boat has, it could at least be referred to by The PY muckers before they start applying all their stats.
So a given boat would have a 'scratch' number, it wouldn't stop the current system of clubs varying it according to their conditions, or ambitious organisers attempting to swell their numbers, but it would at least have a number calculated as a base point and the number would have a direct boat to boat relationship which is what is missing at the moment as some boats get left on the sidelines as the chatterati have their way with fashion fads of the moment depending on who is campaigning which class.
So to anecdotally explain what I mean, take the Blaze and the Phantom which were quite close, they both had different points of good performance, they were 1046 and 1047, both have been modified, both have been built in modern methods, but because the one performed better inland than the other they now have a mucked about differential, that couldn't happen under a maths based system and if it did, it could be ignored at clubs such as ours where there remains little difference the one with the other.
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 24 Dec 13 at 6:37pm
It can be ignored at you club even under the current system. If you can't, then chancdn't be able to ignore what the VPP told you, either. Chances of a Blaze and Phantom coming out similar in a VPP? Close to zero, I'd say!
------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
|
Posted By: Isis
Date Posted: 25 Dec 13 at 10:53pm
I have a dinghy VPP... Its not particularly good yet.
There is a lot of misconception surrounding VPPs, but a lot of the concerns expressed on this thread are valid. They can be fantastic tool if you can manage their shortcomings but expecting them to do too much is where they usually fall down.
Unfortunately given the current level of development expecting a VPP based dinghy handicapping system to be superior to the PY system is probably expecting too much. Never say never though.
|
Posted By: Rupert
Date Posted: 26 Dec 13 at 10:25am
Seems to me that you'd be better using the VPP to design the perfect boat (fast, stable, able to sail well in light winds and strong, inland and on the sea), then get everyone sailing it, than using VPP to fudge handicap racing.
------------- Firefly 2324, Puffin 229, Minisail 3446 Mirror 70686
|
Posted By: Presuming Ed
Date Posted: 26 Dec 13 at 6:45pm
You cannae change the laws of physics.
Use of VPPs when designing keelboats has yet to result in the perfect boat. Probably because there's no such thing as the perfect boat.
The one thing they have done is resulted in a better prediction of performance.
|
Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 28 Feb 14 at 8:41am
Originally posted by getafix
Let's use this forum to propose something other than PY and discuss that? Constant harping about the current system is just rude and disrespectful, IMO, to the folks running it. |
We do on occasion like here..
------------- https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website
|
|