Dinghy development: Weather Forecasts

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Weather Forecasts

Printed From: Yachts and Yachting Online
Category: Dinghy classes
Forum Name: Dinghy development
Forum Discription: The latest moves in the dinghy market
URL: http://www.yachtsandyachting.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=13071
Printed Date: 18 Aug 25 at 10:46am
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 9.665y - http://www.webwizforums.com

Topic: Weather Forecasts

Posted By: Oinks
Subject: Weather Forecasts
Date Posted: 26 May 18 at 8:57pm

Which weather channel/portal do you set store by - lets say 3-4 days before you commit to going to an event?

Replies:

Posted By: 423zero
Date Posted: 26 May 18 at 9:48pm

Accuweather, used it for years, no better or worse than any of the others.

Posted By: maxibuddah
Date Posted: 26 May 18 at 10:11pm

Windfinder and XCweather appear to use the same data, or at least their forecasts appear to be identical. Windy looks quite good these days. The Met Office always seems different to everything else.

What does seem to be consistent is that all of them are not consistent. Varying all over the place. I think that in the attempt to be super accurate they are completely missing that objective and being completely the opposite. When I was a kid and Michael Fish was sticking clouds and suns on a board on the Beeb, it was generally pretty good. Maybe being vague was the best approach.

Anyway to your question, I always commit to the event right up to the day before. Thats when the services finally seem to get it right, anything before that and you might as well rely on a bit of Kelp and a pinecone.

Take tomorrow for example at Castle Cove where I'm going. 4 days ago it was force 5-7, then two days ago force 1. Now it says 2-3. What is the point of making a decision anything other than the day before, it is invariably wrong....that said it'll probably be a force 1 knowing my luck.

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Everything I say is my opinion, honest

Posted By: Sam.Spoons
Date Posted: 26 May 18 at 11:53pm

I use the BBC and XC-Weather. They seem to use different datasets so if they agree, more or less, my confidence is a little higher. When I'm in Anglesey, sailing in Holyhead bay I compare the actual measurements from here http://www.holyheadport.com/navigation.php" rel="nofollow - http://www.holyheadport.com/navigation.php with the forecast from the last few hours and if they appear to have got it right I'll be even more confident that the trend forecast will continue.

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Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"

Posted By: Neptune
Date Posted: 27 May 18 at 8:36am

I like windy: 1 because I could watch the litter annimated arrows for ages, 2 because as Jim said it gives a wider picture as I can see wind patterns over a much larger area. I also like that you can see fronts and where your sailing venue might be in relation to that

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Musto Skiff and Solo sailor

Posted By: iGRF
Date Posted: 28 May 18 at 11:55am

XC weather because we have two live feeds locally, one at Lydd which is to the South West and one at Langstone bay in the East so between them we have the next few hours at least pretty accurate. The rest of the time I use a Meteogroup app and I love that Rain Today spin off app for barbies and such, you can almost set your watch to it. It even works out here on the island from Essex hell (Ibitha)

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https://www.corekite.co.uk/snow-accessories-11-c.asp" rel="nofollow - Snow Equipment Deals https://www.corekite.co.uk" rel="nofollow - New Core Kite website

Posted By: RS400atC
Date Posted: 28 May 18 at 3:48pm

When I did more bigger boat sailing, I used to look at

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

Which shows all the main forecasting models in one site.

Normally they move towards some sort of consensus on the big picture 3 or 4 days ahead.

The fine detail of wind along the coast is a bit more tricky, XC seems as good as anything. The actual/history readings from various airfelds away from sea breeze are useful.

Posted By: H2
Date Posted: 29 May 18 at 9:56am

I use XC and Windguru but as others have said, they are all a bit of a guess until 24 hours before hand. Many years back I was part of a team that was using Chaos theory to help make weather forecasting more accurate, most of us ended up working in banks and that lead to the last financial crash with the same theory being used in plenty of the quant models that traders relied upon. The models have improved alot over the last 20 years so the weather forecast is much better but the volume of data you have to process and the possible variations that science does not yet even understand still means that a forecast more than 24 hours out is no more than an educated guess when it comes to wind strength.

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H2 #115 (sold)
H2 145
OK 2082

Posted By: davidyacht
Date Posted: 29 May 18 at 10:59am

XC long range and Met Office nearer the time; tend to average out all sources on the day. I would never not sail locally based on a forecast, though I might reconsider if it involved a long journey, and only if the forecast said absolutely no wind, and even then there is a chance of an unforecast sea breeze/

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Happily living in the past