New PY Website

Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by sargesail

Originally posted by slop_idol

We have discussed changing at 0.3cf due to it being a good amount of data for the sample size. When we can pool like venues in to the system, and the cf goes up we will use a higher cf before we change, but as it is the boats are currently performing to these numbers and as such should be changed. Now if it turns out to be too harsh the data will go the other way and we will change it again. Its great that the system now reflects this, but I think that having a pre defined low medium and high value against the cf number to be like the old style of defining the yardsticks with primary secondary numbers etc which will scare people off changing numbers.
Yes - but on the other hand it would be useful to ask for those options, to see how they varied at different cfs.

we will only move boats above 0.3cf at the begininng of a new series, that when you look at the data is only two boats currently as the others dont have eneough data yet, and these will move around a fair bit over the season looking at how they have moved in the last few races, the point is we are trying to get to a balance where we may not have to move a boat as it may only move 2py points either side of its base py.

As for the blaze moving as much as it does, I have to say that it is probably along with the fireball the most suited boat to our stretch of water, therefore it will perform above its percieved performance range for most clubs.  There hasn't been a lot of all in races at the club where either a blaze or fireball hasn't won or dominated as fleet the results in the last few years, the Musto is another one that when conditions suit can't be touched on handicap, so every dog does have its day I guess.

And this is where I struggle with using cfs as low as 0.3.  If the Blaze is 50 odd PY points better then you ought to see a similar change in the 300.  Now I'll accept that there aren't enough races yet for the 300, but you are, of course, changing the Blaze relative to everything else - if that's actually because you're water suits the Blaze then by not changing similar boats you are creating an anomalous situation.  How much is Crew Skill Factor too. 

the blazes more often than not beat the 300 around the course so the 300 may not change relative to the blazes performance.  my understanding of the system is that we no longer use benchmark boats to calculate other boats py and as such the handicap given to your class is the one that you as a class have sailed to, if you want to achieve a more favourable handicap, slow down and fudge the results, but you are only cheating yourselves if you do this.
We are also trying to move away from people having a best guess at a particular number as this will and does cause more arguments.  we have been given a great oportunity to you a mathematical system that uses our performances to attain our py, so why whouldnt we?As it stands I think this new system is much better and with perhaps a few minor tweaks and the proposed planned additions it maybe as perfect as handicapping can possibly get.  The trick is not to be scared to change numbers if it looks like they need changing, just make sure everyone knows how you plan to implement changes and that the rules used to apply them are the same for all classes.

Yes I'm all for experiment, as long as there's a control, and the experimenters understand what they're doing.  The irony in all of the PY work is that you could make statistically perfect fair racing and still annoy just about everyone!

absolutely you can annoy everyone, and you could with the old system by not changing so you'll never win over 100% of the people, but not to change because the minority may not agree with you at first is just stupid and we are trying to encourage people to attend. The majority of people i have spoken to understand what we are trying to achieve and agree to it, yes some move more than others but again it is based on their perfomances so should see it as an incentive to sail improve their sailing (this is true if your handicap moves up or down).