New Posts New Posts RSS Feed: So? I am not a number article?
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Register Register  Login Login

So? I am not a number article?
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 1213141516 19>
Author
  Share Topic Share Topic  Topic Search Topic Search  Topic Options Topic Options
turnturtle View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 05 Dec 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: So? I am not a number article?
    Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 2:35pm
Originally posted by JimC

In general I stay strictly clear of PY discussion these days, but the allegation that I (Cherubs, unfashionable medium sized inland clubs) am a member of a sailing old boys network, coupled with the inference that Mr Henshall (Merlins, Lymington etc etc) is not has quite brightened up my morning.

LOL LOL LOL
Back to Top
turnturtle View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 05 Dec 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 2:42pm
Originally posted by Steve411

Originally posted by turnturtle

Originally posted by sargesail

Steve - you Johnny Come Lately!

It was 1009 when I started!  4%.

bloody hell... that was back when half the dinghy sailing public wrote the boat off as a 'girl's boat', simply because Shirley Robertson wrote one of the first reviews for it.  (was it in Y&Y I wonder???)

It seems the RS300 PY reduction directly correlates with the level of patriarchal b**locks there is in general society ...  LOL


test score = 60% 
Jimbo Score = 92.7%
Back to Top
sargesail View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 14 Jan 06
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1459 		Post Options Post Options   Quote sargesail Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 2:53pm
Originally posted by iGRF

Originally posted by Steve411


Originally posted by turnturtle

Well considering the MPS number is now 847, not 860 as raised as a concern in that letter, I'd say the lobbying was fairly ineffectual, even if well intended!  (Given the names cited in the letter, I have 100% faith in their credibility and honest intention)
Given the boat is essentially the same as it was at its debut, you can only conclude the quality of the sailing in them has improved dramatically. 

Same with the RS300 which now has a PY of 973. It was over 1000 just a few years ago. We are clearly getting better every year! Only by 3% though.


Which is exactly what you would expect, both boats are difficult to sail and so only expert boat handlers end up using them so their results will end up being from the front end of most fleets given they are both faster than average.

But the process must inevitably become self defeating as the next elitist product will inevitably come along and their use will dwindle. It's is exactly why the system defeats itself and brings about wastage of numbers, along the way there will be those who simply give up. It would be far better if a boat you know and love remains in concert with the rest of the fleet and not taken further and further beyond the average persons ability because of the activities of helms elsewhere. That I believe is the fundamental flaw in the existing system.

Well I'm a 300 sailor and a far from expert boat handler.  But I persisted with mine (20 years and counting) and I'm a far better boat handler for it.  I've run some analysis and and I reckon that I'm about 8-9% PY better in the other boats I sail.  That is to say 5% better than the PY reduction in the same period.

But the point is that I only judge myself on results against other 300s.  When I handicap race I just look at whether my processes were good.  The spreadsheet results confirm or deny my thoughts.  Helpfully there is usually time for reflection before I see them!
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

The GL's avowed intention of only processing the top end of the fleet to arrive at the numbers seems sensible in that it represents how well sailed boats relate to each other. But the best sailors are unlikely to be racing the 'bread and butter' rotomoulded classes so their best results probably don't achieve that end.

GL state "Our aim is to allow the top sailors in any class an equal chance of winning when conditions suit that class"

That can be interpreted in many ways, have you been told it means they only process the top boats in their calculations? 

How do they determine who the top sailors are? Is it 5% of each class, or 25%. Or is it sailors they would consider top?

The top sailors in Visions, Quests and Vago's all finished well down the results; by GL aim then they should be have an equal chance of winning, or did conditions not suit last year? 

At some point, someone has to look subjectively at those results and say the top X sailor isn't as good as the Y class sailor. 

This an in-built issue with handicaps based on historic results before you consider variable performance across conditions and condition not being the same for two boat int eh same race. 

I suspect the reason GL don't publish their methodology, and why the RYA want to have their frank discussions in private is because if it was openly known then it would ruin facade of 'fairness' in the numbers.

Personally, part of me is glad a centralised committee has put effort in to work out rough numbers, as it saves every sailing club around the country going through the same process. But part of me feels the centralised committee and RYA backing gives the numbers a gravitas they don't deserve; and more people had to involve themselves 'working' number out on a local level they would stop insisting its the future of our sport.  
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3398 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 3:25pm
quote from sail juice website :- "Poor performers are excluded before class handicaps are computed in order to prevent undue influence by those who were late to the start, having a bad day or simply new to the sport or the boat."
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 3:31pm
Yeah, but how do they determine poor performances? Someone has to subjectively determine a cut off? The GL method page hardly gives a method does it? 

Plus, going back to the SJ series, the top vision sailor who still finished well down, who determines they were " late to the start, having a bad day or simply new to the sport or the boat" despite being top in their class? 

p.s. not pulling you up on this Sam, just point out where I don't really see GL 'method' as a method at all. They state their aims but I imagine a lot of subjective tweeting goes on. 


Edited by mozzy - 22 Nov 17 at 3:32pm
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3398 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 4:03pm
I'm sure it does but as an aim I think it has much to commend it. If it was possible to process the results of the best 10% of sailors across a full range of classes (and sailing conditions) that would get closer to the handicappers ideal of the number representing the boats' relative performance.
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Back to Top
turnturtle View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 05 Dec 14
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2538 		Post Options Post Options   Quote turnturtle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 4:10pm
Originally posted by Sam.Spoons

I'm sure it does but as an aim I think it has much to commend it. If it was possible to process the results of the best 10% of sailors across a full range of classes (and sailing conditions) that would get closer to the handicappers ideal of the number representing the boats' relative performance.

I doubt it... the best 10% of the Solo, Merlin, (insert other non-noddy class here) are going to be a sh*tload hotter than the top 10% of the more noddy classes out there.  

As Mozzy points out, defining which classes constitute the noddier of the mix, is always going be subjective.  And understandably, this process is kept from public view.... after all, no one likes it if their class is given the noddy tag.  




Edited by turnturtle - 22 Nov 17 at 4:15pm
Back to Top
The Moo View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more
Avatar

Joined: 01 Jun 06
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 807 		Post Options Post Options   Quote The Moo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 4:33pm
Ha! Just spotted the pipe smoking PYAG member stood on the shore gathering anecdotal evidence of the Merlin's performance for the next meeting.
Back to Top
Sam.Spoons View Drop Down
Really should get out more
Really should get out more


Joined: 07 Mar 12
Location: Manchester UK
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3398 		Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 17 at 4:41pm
Perhaps I worded that badly when I said the "top 10% of sailors", I didn't mean "the best 10% of sailors of each class". My point was that, in a hypothetical world, if one could get the top sailors together and have them race a range of boats in a range of conditions and use that set of results to set the handicaps they would better represent the actual performance potential of the boats (I think somebody, GRF possibly, mooted this super-series approach in an earlier PY thread so I'm not claiming it as original).

With the Portsmouth system 'noddy boats' should end up with a more favourable handicap and should, if given into the hands of a good sailor, consistently do better than expected. Presumably the PYAG use their input to adjust PNs of such boats. GL eliminate a percentage of the fleet (no specific knowledge but if they only processed the top 50% of each class that would get them closer to that ideal).




Edited by Sam.Spoons - 22 Nov 17 at 4:48pm
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 1213141516 19>

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Bulletin Board Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 9.665y
Copyright ©2001-2010 Web Wiz
Change your personal settings, or read our privacy policy