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Endeavour 2017: Prediction thread

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Poll Question: Who will win the 2017 endeavour
Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
8 [33.33%]
6 [25.00%]
1 [4.17%]
1 [4.17%]
1 [4.17%]
1 [4.17%]
3 [12.50%]
1 [4.17%]
1 [4.17%]
1 [4.17%]
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mozzy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Endeavour 2017: Prediction thread
    Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 10:09am
Runners and riders article here Looking like a tough field this year! 

Not every entrant is covered in that list though and I think there are some very good bets missed off. I can only put ten in the poll, but the full entry list is here (thanks GybeFunny), so please add in your favourites in the thread below. 


Knowledge of the class
With the event being held in 200's it worth looking at the contenders history in that class. 
Saxton -Lewis, Palmer - Seabright and the Gilberts (x2) are all RS200 championship winning teams.  Roberts has won a nationals as a crew and done plenty of helming in them too. Birrell has won a inland's and done at least one nationals.  Wells and Cockerill's have done 200 nationals too. But... the 200 isn't a particularity technical class, so I wouldn't say it's a huge advantage. 

Pedigree in the event
Nick Craig with 6 previous wins is really the 'legend' of this event. However, he's not won the  since it's switched to 200's; he's a big guy. 

Of the helms Gilbert, Saxton, Burge, Roberts (crew) and Birrell (crew) are all previous winners too. 

The 'super crew' factor
There's also some proper ringers as crews. Firstly; Toby Lewis. Most successful crew in endeavour history. He's won the event with four different helms. In the last ten years only three other crews have broken his run. Of those Roberts and Birrell, are both now helming so that only leaves Emma Clarke as a previous winner returning to the role. Amongst Toby's national victories he counts an RS200 championships, so certainly knows the boat. 

Emma Clarke, only other previous endeavour winning crew reprising that role and a 200 national champ to boot (2nd this year too). Amy Seabright and Jane Gilbert are both RS200 national champions too. Luke Patience is mentioned in the article, but my sources tell me he's been replaced by Rob Henderson. Rob came 4th in 2016 and 3rd at this years 200 nationals; so certainly a better 200 crewing pedigree than Luke. 

Who's my money on? 
1st: Well, Saxton - Lewis. Previous 200 national champions and combined they are the most successful team in endeavours by far. They know the format and have the class; they're also defending champs. 

2nd: After that I would say Ben Palmer. If he can suss out the venue quickly I think he will push Saxton. He's not got a massive list of championships to his name (I think just toppers and maybe 420); but coming fresh of a nationals win in the class the event is being held in counts for a lot. He's also handy at the short close quarters racing you see on the crouch and as HISC sailor is well used to the tide.  

3rd: I'd put Gilbert on the third step of the podium. Double 200 champion I know, and plenty of experience in this event; but it's a long way from I14 sailing which has been his focus for the last couple of years. 

Dark horse: Nigel Wakefield representing the Firefly with Mary Henderson. He's done a bit of 200 sailing before, and came 2nd at the Burghfield open and Sandy Shell. Mary is a very nifty 200 crew. He's also borrowing my boat, so of course i'd like to see my boat win! 


Edited by mozzy - 12 Oct 17 at 9:49am
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GybeFunny View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Quote GybeFunny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 10:36am
Here is the full entry list:

https://royalcorinthian.co.uk/endeavour/2017-entries/

My money would be on Saxton but it should be an awesome one design fleet race whoever wins!! ;-p


Edited by GybeFunny - 11 Oct 17 at 10:37am
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 11:55am
That's a bit crap isn't it?

Making them use RS200's, what happened to all the plastic Xenon things or whatever they were, it's bound to be loaded in favour of anyone who has managed to master that rock n rolla coaster.

Not really in the spirit of finding the best helm.

They should split them up last minute and make them sail boards then we'd see who was who.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote JimC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 12:25pm
Originally posted by iGRF

Not really in the spirit of finding the best helm.

I imagine the manufacturer of the plastic things no longer wanted to sponsor the event. Not surprising really as so many people were rude about the boats. I also wonder if perhaps people were reluctant to sail horrible boats at a horrible venue...

The problem is always boats... I imagine they're using RS200s because there are loads of them about. Its probably easier to borrow a reasonable RS200 than any other two hander. Back in the 80s I recall a mate who did it being amazed about how great the difference in boat speed seemed to be between different Enterprises!
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Post Options Post Options   Quote mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 12:28pm
Originally posted by iGRF

what happened to all the plastic Xenon

I think they were pulled two years ago. Topper stopped the sponsorship. RS now sponsor but provide sails not boats.  

I reckon they went for 200s because:
a)RS were willing to pay is 
b) they are readily available (people loan the boats). 
c) Out of all the popular boat they could of chose, the 200 is probably the least technical
d)most have some experience of it.  

Obviously, when you get away from using a class that no-one races, then it will give an advantage; same when used 400s. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sam.Spoons Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 1:37pm
I thought the Endeavor was supposed to be class champions racing for the glory of their chosen class? S which class receives the glory if a crew are champions in several different classes?
Spice 346 "Flat Broke"
Blaze 671 "supersonic soap dish"
Supernova 395 "dolly the sheep"
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Post Options Post Options   Quote mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 1:54pm
Both classes usually claim the glory! But technically the competitor only represent one class (which you can see on the entry list).

Some helms have deferred representing their class to their crew. 
Christian Birrell is representing the 470 presumably because Johny can't attend. 
Alan Roberts is representing the Merlin as Nick is representing the D-One. 
Anna Carpenter is representing the Ladies 470 as her helm, Amy Seabright, is representing the 200. 

Steve Cockerill has chosen to represent the 2000 over the Aero, but then he is sailing with his wife who he won the 2000's with. 

Interestingly, Ben Saxton, is the only entrant not to have won a nationals!



Edited by mozzy - 11 Oct 17 at 1:58pm
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 1:58pm
So, they should all race their own class on handicap and the event should be used to provide a measure to illuminate the PYAGs darkness.

Obvious is so simples
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Post Options Post Options   Quote mozzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 2:05pm
It wouldn't really illuminate anything, as you still wouldn't be able to separate handicap from skill. 

Very few national champions turn down the chance to enter, often sailing average boats, or boats they're not suited to, just to pit themselves against the best in the country. 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote iGRF Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 17 at 2:28pm
If they are national champions, then it is safe to assume they have the relevant skill, so it follows if they apply that skill to their classes best advantage you could derive as accurate performance data of that class boats optimum performance, which would then provide a more accurate assessment of interboat relationships than the current inland numptie loaded weighting.

Held annually it could provide a focal point, in fact an event such as that I might even pay to go and watch, especially if all the classes had information stands and there were maybe other retailers on hand. A younger me would already be setting about organising it with sponsors, prize money for the winners and a carnival atmosphere.
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